The Price of Gun Runner

Published October 30, 2026. Foxiest, Further Ado and Super Corredora run at the Breeders’ Cup this weekend; we will add their results here on Sunday, November 1.

At Fasig-Tipton Saratoga in August, ten of Gun Runner’s sixteen yearlings sold brought at least $1 million. At Keeneland September a month later, fifteen more reached seven figures, including a $3.1 million colt bought by AMO Racing USA. That makes twenty-five million-dollar yearlings in one season, from a stallion whose first runners appeared only five years ago.

On Wednesday, Three Chimneys announced that his 2027 fee would be Private. I’ve confirmed with several reliable sources that seasons are changing hands at $350,000, an increase of $100,000 over his previous advertised fee. Not This Time has been announced at $300,000 for 2027, while Into Mischief remains at $250,000.

The other number that caught my attention was $700,000, the median for Gun Runner’s sold yearlings in Keeneland September Book 1. At the new season price, that is two times the stud fee before accounting for the mare, raising the foal or selling expenses. His Saratoga median was substantially higher; his Book 2 median was lower. Those differences say a great deal about the buyers pursuing Gun Runner and the breeders willing to pay for access to him.

The Racing Record

Gun Runner, Into Mischief and Not This Time occupy much of the same premium market, but their production records have developed differently. Into Mischief has sustained an enormous population of runners and stakes horses over many years. Not This Time has moved rapidly up the earnings standings, succeeding on dirt and turf. Gun Runner’s strongest historical measure is the rate at which his offspring have reached Grade 1 level.

From 733 named foals, Gun Runner has produced 63 stakes winners, 41 graded stakes winners and sixteen Grade 1 winners. His Grade 1 winners represent 2.18% of his named foals, ahead of Not This Time’s 1.97% and Into Mischief’s 1.67%. Tapit, Curlin and Justify, all established at the premium end of the market, stand at 1.89%, 1.77% and 1.62%, respectively.

On stakes winners, the order reverses. Into Mischief and Not This Time have produced stakes winners at higher rates, while Gun Runner’s advantage has been concentrated among the very best. For an owner seeking a major Grade 1 horse, particularly a colt with potential future stallion value, that is a meaningful part of the appeal. Sierra Leone, Early Voting, Gunite, Taiba and Cyberknife have already shown what his best runners can accomplish.

Figure 1 · Lifetime stakes and Grade 1 rates

Gun Runner’s stakes-winner rate sits near the bottom of this group, and his Grade 1 rate at the top

Show the data

Sire	Named foals	Stakes winners	Per 100 foals	Grade 1 winners	Per 100 foals
Gun Runner	733	63	8.6	16	2.18
Not This Time	760	79	10.4	15	1.97
Tapit	1,800	174	9.7	34	1.89
Curlin	1,468	121	8.2	26	1.77
Into Mischief	1,913	202	10.6	32	1.67
Justify	677	61	9.0	11	1.62

The Grade 1 gap with Not This Time is small, about two-tenths of a percentage point, and these lifetime percentages include young foals that have yet to race. Their crops have had different amounts of time to develop. The quality of mares is another important part of the comparison: Gun Runner’s Comparable Index is 2.70, against 1.95 for Not This Time and 1.79 for Into Mischief. His lifetime Average Earnings Index is 2.58, close to his mares’ already high historical standard. Not This Time’s is 2.24 against a CI of 1.95. Those indices measure earnings, and they cannot tell us how much of a Grade 1 winner’s ability came from either parent.

The general sire standings introduce a separate complication. In 2022, Gun Runner earned $14.7 million from 139 runners. Into Mischief earned $28.1 million from 473. Gun Runner had less than one-third as many runners and produced more than half as much earnings, with $105,524 per runner against Into Mischief’s $59,456. His earliest crops were remarkably productive for their size.

By October 29 this year, Gun Runner had 314 runners and Into Mischief 393. Their earnings per runner were $60,032 and $63,719, respectively. Not This Time led both at $94,683 from 311 runners. His figure includes Magnitude’s $8.3 million; even after removing Magnitude, the remaining runners averaged approximately $68,100. Not This Time also leads the three in this year’s stakes-winner rate, at 7.4% of runners, against 6.1% for Into Mischief and 5.4% for Gun Runner.

Figure 2 · Earnings per runner

Gun Runner’s earnings per runner have come back to Into Mischief’s level as his crops have grown

Show the data

Year	Gun Runner runners	Earnings	Per runner	Into Mischief runners	Earnings	Per runner
2022	139	$14,667,829	$105,524	473	$28,122,550	$59,456
2023	203	$17,532,118	$86,365	460	$25,664,823	$55,793
2024	256	$22,267,935	$86,984	473	$34,622,993	$73,199
2025	302	$21,587,831	$71,483	453	$31,865,453	$70,343
2026 (to Oct. 29)	314	$18,850,168	$60,032	393	$25,041,697	$63,719

The Book 1 Market

At Keeneland September, Gun Runner accounted for fifteen of the sale’s seventy seven-figure yearlings. Not This Time had twelve and Into Mischief eleven. Twelve of Gun Runner’s fifteen came from Book 1, where 29 of his 34 offered yearlings eventually sold, including recorded post-sales, for a $700,000 median.

Saratoga was an even more selective market. Sixteen Gun Runners sold there for a $1.1 million median, ten at seven figures, with a top price of $4 million.

Gun Runner has sired a Breeders’ Cup Classic winner in Sierra Leone, a Preakness winner in Early Voting, a champion juvenile filly in Echo Zulu and several other major dirt performers. Buyers of elite colts can also attach considerable value to the prospect of a future stallion career. A Grade 1 win at three, in a race like the Kentucky Derby or the Travers, can make a colt a stallion prospect; a win at a lower level rarely does.

The mare and the individual matter just as much to the price of a particular yearling. A Book 1 Gun Runner from a successful female family, with the physical and veterinary profile the major buyers want, is a selected horse in a selected part of the catalog. The sales results establish the strength of demand; they cannot separate precisely how much of an individual price comes from the sire, the mare, the physical or the buyer’s plans.

Gun Runner’s other twenty-eight completed Keeneland sales were spread across Books 2, 3 and 5B. Twenty sold in Book 2 at a $437,500 median, $262,500 below the Book 1 median. That’s a consequential difference for a breeder buying a $350,000 season.

The Economics of a $350,000 Season

Gun Runner’s first yearlings conceived at the $250,000 fee reached the market this year. At Keeneland September, 84 were cataloged, 67 offered and 57 sold, including seven recorded post-sales. The median was $525,000, the average $766,175 and ring clearance 74.6%.

In 2025, forty sold from 46 offered for a $687,500 median and 84.8% ring clearance. More Gun Runners were offered in 2026, and more sold, but the median declined by $162,500. The earlier crop was conceived during the 2023 Private-fee season, so its original mating cost is unavailable for a like-for-like comparison.

At $250,000, this year’s $525,000 Keeneland median was 2.1 times the fee. At $350,000, the same sale price would be 1.5 times the fee, with $175,000 left above the season cost. That amount has to cover the economic value of the mare, the pregnancy and foal, board, veterinary work, preparation and selling expenses before the breeder earns anything. It also has to be considered against the cost of matings that produce no saleable yearling.

These are gross comparisons using 2026 yearling prices against a 2027 season cost. A foal conceived next year would reach the yearling market in 2029, and the medians include only horses that sold. Saratoga’s sixteen completed sales are a particularly selected group. The table is useful for understanding the exposure a breeder is taking, with considerable uncertainty about the eventual price of any individual horse.

Figure 3 · Medians against the fee

Only the Saratoga median clears three times a $350,000 fee

Show the data

2026 market	Median	At $250K	At $350K	Median less $350K
Fasig-Tipton Saratoga	$1,100,000	4.4x	3.1x	$750,000
Keeneland Book 1	$700,000	2.8x	2.0x	$350,000
Keeneland September, all books	$525,000	2.1x	1.5x	$175,000
Keeneland Book 2	$437,500	1.75x	1.25x	$87,500

The Book 2 line is the one I’d study closely. A yearling can have a good pedigree, a respectable physical and plenty of racing potential and still find itself outside the very top of the market. At this year’s $437,500 median, a $350,000 season would leave $87,500 before the other costs of producing and selling the horse. The margin depends heavily on which mare is being bred and where the resulting yearling lands in the catalog.

That calculus changes for an owner breeding to race. Such an owner may be seeking a Grade 1 performer or a valuable future stallion or broodmare, with little interest in selling the yearling. An established breeder who owns an exceptional mare might also value the mating differently from someone buying both a mare and an expensive season specifically to resell the foal.

Shareholders operate under another set of terms. Gun Runner is co-owned by Three Chimneys and Winchell Thoroughbreds, and shareholder breeding rights account for an undisclosed portion of his book. A Private fee can describe the price of the seasons available to outside breeders even while other mares are covered through longstanding ownership arrangements. The share of the 2027 book controlled by shareholders has not been established publicly, so scarcity may be part of the price without being something we can quantify.

Gun Runner covered 250 mares in 2026, up from 218 the previous year. For someone contemplating a commercial mating, I’d begin with the mare and the range of yearling prices her foal could realistically achieve, then work backward through the stud fee and costs. Three Chimneys has yet to disclose how much of the 2027 book will be available outside existing breeding rights.

The Crops Behind the Price

Gun Runner entered stud in 2018 at $70,000, stood for that fee for three seasons and was reduced to $50,000 for 2021 during the pandemic. His first runners arrived in 2021, led by Echo Zulu and Gunite, and the initial crop went on to produce Early Voting, Taiba, Cyberknife and Society as well. Six Grade 1 winners came from that first $70,000 season.

After the early success, Three Chimneys raised him to $125,000 for 2022. The resulting 2023 foals have produced six Grade 1 winners by age three, including Kentucky Oaks winner Always a Runner, Travers winner Leading Change, Blue Grass winner Further Ado, Alabama winner My Gun’s Loaded, Super Corredora and Brant.

All sixteen of his Grade 1 winners to date were conceived in seasons advertised at $125,000 or less. The next crop, conceived when his 2023 fee was Private, is now two. Through October 28 it had eight winners from 38 starters, with no stakes winner yet. Foxiest, a daughter of champion Covfefe, runs in Friday’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies; Further Ado and Super Corredora represent the $125,000 crop on Saturday.

Figure 4 · Fee and Grade 1 winners by season

All sixteen of Gun Runner’s Grade 1 winners were conceived in seasons priced at $125,000 or less

Show the data

Season	Advertised fee	Crop in 2026	Grade 1 winners	Grade 1 winners
2018	$70,000	7-year-olds	6	Echo Zulu, Early Voting, Gunite, Taiba, Cyberknife, Society
2019	$70,000	6-year-olds	2	Vahva, Gun Pilot
2020	$70,000	5-year-olds	2	Sierra Leone, Locked
2021	$50,000	4-year-olds	0
2022	$125,000	3-year-olds	6	Brant, Super Corredora, Always a Runner, Leading Change, Further Ado, My Gun’s Loaded
2023	Private	2-year-olds	0
2024	$250,000	yearlings	Not yet racing
2025	$250,000	weanlings	Not yet racing
2026	$250,000	due 2027	Not yet racing
2027	$350,000	due 2028	Not yet racing

The first foals conceived at $250,000 are the yearlings sold this fall. They begin racing in 2027. A mating made at $350,000 next spring will produce a 2028 foal, a 2029 yearling and, potentially, a 2030 two-year-old. The racing evidence supporting the new price has come from the considerably less expensive matings made earlier in Gun Runner’s career.

Gun Runner’s Sons at Stud

Gun Runner’s sons are spread across the stallion cycle, from Cyberknife, whose first runners are two-year-olds this year, to Sierra Leone and Locked, whose first foals arrive next spring.

Early Voting had begun to make a strong case. His first crop produced Miss Monica, winner of this year’s Grade 1 Del Mar Debutante, and seventeen of his nineteen offered Keeneland September yearlings sold for a $125,000 median. Taylor Made had announced a $50,000 fee for 2027 before he died of colic on October 20. His death cut short the most encouraging early start among Gun Runner’s sons with runners.

Cyberknife’s first season has been harder. Through October 29, he had fourteen winners from sixty runners and no stakes winner. His Keeneland September yearling median fell from $65,000 in 2025 to $26,500 this year, although the two crops also differed in their conception fees and number offered. Those first runners are still two-year-olds, so his racing record remains at an early stage.

Gunite’s first yearlings sold at Keeneland for a $130,000 median, with 77 sold from a crop conceived at $40,000. Taiba’s first yearlings brought a $100,000 median from 63 sales, after a $35,000 conception-season fee. Their first runners arrive next year.

Sierra Leone is the most accomplished racehorse among his sons. He won the Breeders’ Cup Classic, Blue Grass and Whitney, finished in the first three in all fourteen career starts and earned more than $8 million. He entered stud at Ashford for $75,000 this year and has been reduced to $65,000 for 2027, before his first foals arrive. Locked, standing at Gainesway for $35,000, is in the same first-foal stage.

Keeneland November has cataloged 35 mares in foal to Locked and 34 to Sierra Leone. Another 34 weanlings are by Gun Pilot, who entered stud at Three Chimneys in 2025. Those offerings will give us an early reading of how breeders value the next generation of Gun Runner’s sire line.

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Corrections. Every figure in this piece was checked against its source, and an error is still possible. If you find one, let me know through our contact form or @TB_Intel on X, and I’ll correct it quickly.