Five Keeneland September Book 1 Fillies We'd Love in Our Racing Stable

Book 1 is loaded with some of the finest, and priciest, colt pedigrees you'll ever run across, but some of the most exciting racing pages in the book belong to the fillies.

Hip 202, a Curlin filly out of Grade 1 winner Dreaming of Julia and a full sister to champion Malathaat, was our favorite overall page in Book 1, but she is already an out. Hip 120, a Gun Runner filly out of Amour d'Ete and a full sister to Preakness winner Early Voting, is out as well after scoring in our original top five.

Even so, we're left with a deep group of fillies carrying the kind of close-up class, production, and 2YO-to-3YO development we look for in serious racehorse prospects.

For this exercise, we ranked the active Book 1 fillies on racing potential. We focused on class close to the subject, female-family production, sire performance, juvenile evidence, three-year-old development, durability, and mating fit.

If they all cost the same amount and passed the same physical and veterinary examination, these are the five pages we would most want to take to the races.

1. Hip 251, Nyquist out of Heavenly Love, by Malibu Moon

• Racing score: 94.1
• Dirt
• 2YO: 7 to 8½f
• 3YO: 8½ to 10f
• Early
• Exceptional train-on
• High confidence

Hip 251 moves to the top of the active list with one of the strongest combinations of juvenile class, immediate production, and deeper family quality among the Book 1 fillies.

Heavenly Love won the Alcibiades [G1] at two. She has already produced Sierra Leone, champion three-year-old colt and winner of the Breeders' Cup Classic [G1], Whitney [G1], Blue Grass [G1], and Risen Star [G2]. He also finished second in the Kentucky Derby [G1] and placed in both the Belmont and Travers.

That gives us elite juvenile ability from the dam and championship-level route ability from her produce.

The next two generations keep adding class. Second dam Darling My Darling was Grade 1-placed and produced Heavenly Love and Grade 2 winner Forever Darling. Forever Darling produced Forever Young, a multiple international Grade 1 winner, along with Grade 3 winner Brown Ratchet. Third dam Roamin Rachel won the Ballerina [G1] and produced Japanese Horse of the Year Zenno Rob Roy.

Nyquist fits the page especially well. He was champion at two, won the Kentucky Derby at three, and has already demonstrated the ability to sire elite juvenile fillies. The broader Nyquist/A.P. Indy-line population in the supplied data has produced 18 stakes winners from 170 starters. Among fillies, 76 starters have produced 51 winners and eight stakes winners.

We see her primarily as a dirt filly with enough natural ability to matter during the juvenile season and more upside as the distances stretch at three. Nyquist brings the early racing profile. Heavenly Love and Sierra Leone give the family proven route depth.

The open question is production volume. Heavenly Love has only two runners in the detailed record, and Sierra Leone accounts for the championship result. The sample is still developing.

Hip 251 leads the active group because the evidence close to her is exceptional: a Grade 1 juvenile dam, a champion sibling, a sire with proven 2YO and 3YO class, and high-level racing quality running through successive generations.

2. Hip 110, Gun Runner out of Akron Moon, by Malibu Moon

• Racing score: 93.2
• Dirt
• 2YO: 6½ to 8½f
• 3YO: 7½ to 9f
• Above-average precocity
• Strong train-on
• High confidence

Akron Moon gets our attention before we ever reach the mating statistics.

She produced Bellafina, a three-time Grade 1 winner who took the Del Mar Debutante [G1], Chandelier [G1], and Sorrento [G2] at two before winning the Santa Anita Oaks [G1] at three.

She also produced Diamond King, a multiple stakes winner who was Grade 2 and Grade 3 placed.

That is serious production from a relatively small runner sample, and Bellafina provides the juvenile-to-three-year-old progression we value heavily in this exercise.

Second dam Akronism was a dual Grade 3 winner and produced Grade 2 winner Have At It. The family is strongest in the first two generations, with the major racing evidence sitting close to the subject.

Then we get to the mating.

The direct Gun Runner/Malibu Moon population in the supplied data has 25 foals of racing age, 16 starters, 15 winners, and six stakes winners. The filly subset is particularly interesting: 10 starters, nine winners, and three stakes winners.

The cross has also shown real middle-distance ability. Its average winning distance is just over eight furlongs, and the filly population runs slightly longer still.

Bellafina and Diamond King both reinforce the dirt profile, while Gun Runner gives the pedigree another strong source of class and development.

Her April 27 foaling date makes her later than most of this group, so we would expect her juvenile opportunity to come during the main season rather than especially early. The page still supports meaningful racing at two with further development into three.

Hip 110 ranks this highly because the first dam, the sire, and the direct mating data all point in the same direction: dirt, early quality, and enough substance to carry it around two turns.

3. Hip 220, Curlin out of Feel That Fire, by Lightnin N Thunder

• Racing score: 92.4
• Dirt
• 2YO: 6½ to 8f
• 3YO: 7 to 9½f
• Moderate to above-average precocity
• Strong train-on
• High confidence

Feel That Fire has already produced the kind of racehorse most programs spend years trying to find.

Mind Control won the Hopeful [G1] at two, the H. Allen Jerkens [G1] at three, and later the Cigar Mile [G1]. He won 11 races and earned more than $2 million.

She also produced Goddess of Fire, Grade 1-placed in the Alabama and Grade 2-placed in the Rachel Alexandra and Gulfstream Park Oaks. Blue Flame Six adds current stakes form.

So the first dam has already produced Grade 1 juvenile ability, high-class route form, and durability across multiple seasons.

The second dam, Ubetwereven, produced three stakes winners from different sire combinations, including Feel That Fire, King for a Day, and Ima Jersey Girl. Feel That Fire's daughter Gangbusters has already carried the line forward as the dam of stakes winner Wendelsssohn.

Curlin changes the profile in an interesting way. Feel That Fire's family supplies speed and earlier development. Curlin contributes scope, route ability, and a long record of horses improving through the three-year-old season and beyond.

The broader Curlin/Storm Cat pattern is favorable, although the exact Curlin/Lightnin N Thunder evidence is limited. For us, the mare's actual production carries considerably more weight than the nick.

We would expect enough speed for this filly to participate at two, with the more interesting question being how far Curlin can stretch that ability at three.

Feel That Fire has eight runners and six winners, giving us a useful production sample. Mind Control sets the standard, while Goddess of Fire and Blue Flame Six give us additional quality behind him.

Hip 220 lands here because the immediate family has already demonstrated early class, three-year-old progression, and sustained racing ability.

4. Hip 53, Curlin out of Stormy Welcome, by Storm Cat

• Racing score: 91.3
• Dirt
• 2YO: 7 to 8½f
• 3YO: 8 to 9½f
• Moderate to above-average precocity
• Strong train-on
• High confidence

Hip 53 has one of the cleanest pieces of evidence in the entire group.

She is a full sister to Raging Sea.

Raging Sea won more than $2.2 million and became a multiple Grade 1 winner, taking the La Troienne [G1] and Personal Ensign [G1] along with the Beldame [G2], Shuvee [G2], Doubledogdare [G3], and Comely [G3]. She also finished third in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies [G1] at two.

The Curlin/Stormy Welcome mating has therefore already produced a filly with high-class juvenile form who developed into an elite two-turn dirt mare.

The broader Curlin/Storm Cat population supports the result. The supplied sample includes 31 starters, 25 winners, and six stakes winners. Among fillies, 18 starters have produced 14 winners and four stakes winners.

Then there is the family behind Stormy Welcome.

Second dam Welcome Surprise was a Grade 3 winner and a half-sister to Horse of the Year A.P. Indy and Preakness winner Summer Squall. Third dam Weekend Surprise was Broodmare of the Year and became one of the foundational mares of the modern American stud book.

Stormy Welcome's own production is more polarized. Nine runners have produced five winners, with Raging Sea clearly the standout. Welcoming was stakes placed, and Weather Wiz won six races, so there is useful racing ability elsewhere in the produce record.

For Hip 53, the full-sibling evidence carries the most weight. Raging Sea has already shown exactly what Curlin can produce from this mare.

We see her as a dirt filly with middle-distance upside, enough ability to race at two, and a stronger chance of reaching her best as she develops.

Hip 53 ranks fourth because the exact mating proof is outstanding, while the first dam's broader production record is less consistent than the mares above her.

5. Hip 235, Gun Runner out of Glinda the Good, by Hard Spun

• Racing score: 90.7
• Dirt
• 2YO: 6 to 8f
• 3YO: 7 to 9f
• High precocity
• Strong train-on
• Medium confidence

Hip 235 is probably the most complicated pedigree in the five.

The female family gives us plenty to like.

Glinda the Good was a stakes winner and Grade 2-placed as a juvenile. She produced Good Magic, champion two-year-old colt and winner of the Breeders' Cup Juvenile [G1], Haskell [G1], and Blue Grass [G2], with a second in the Kentucky Derby [G1].

That places elite juvenile class and elite three-year-old form directly under the first dam.

The deeper family is strong as well. Second dam Magical Flash produced 14 winners from 16 runners, including Grade 3 winner Take the Ribbon and several other stakes winners. Third dam Gils Magic produced 10 winners from 11 runners, headed by multiple Grade 1 winner Magical Maiden and Grade 2 winner Magical Mile.

The question is the mating.

TrueNicks rates the broader Candy Ride-line over Danzig-line mares poorly, and Werk reaches a similar conclusion. G1 Goldmine views the mating favorably. The direct Gun Runner/Hard Spun sample contains only one starter, leaving very little exact-cross evidence.

So here we have a high-class family and an elite sire, but a less settled mating case than we have with Hip 110 or Hip 53.

The juvenile argument remains strong. Glinda the Good won at two and was graded placed at two. Good Magic was champion at two. Gun Runner has produced elite juveniles. Her January 22 foaling date also puts her on favorable chronological footing.

We see her primarily from seven to nine furlongs, with more speed influence than some of the other Gun Runner fillies in the book.

Glinda the Good has seven runners and four winners, with Good Magic accounting for the direct black type. The ceiling is obvious. The overall consistency is more moderate.

Hip 235 makes the five because championship juvenile class sits close to the subject and the deeper family repeatedly produces racehorses. The mating question lowers our confidence while leaving plenty of upside.

Two we wish were still in

The scratches changed our list before we ever reached the barns.

Hip 202, Curlin out of Dreaming of Julia, was our favorite page in all of Book 1, colt or filly. Dreaming of Julia was a Grade 1 winner at two, and the exact Curlin mating has already produced champion Malathaat and graded winner Julia Shining.

Hip 120, Gun Runner out of Amour d'Ete, also made our original top five. Her full brother Early Voting won the Preakness [G1] and Withers [G3], and the family runs through champion juvenile Silken Cat.

We would have loved to see both.

What we like about this group

One word: diversity. We have five elite racing pedigrees built five different ways.

Hip 251 brings a Grade 1 juvenile dam, a champion sibling, and Grade 1 class running through successive generations.

Hip 110 combines proven first-dam production with one of the strongest direct sire/broodmare-sire crosses in the group.

Hip 220 comes through a mare who has already produced Grade 1 juvenile ability, route class, and a horse with the durability to stay at a high level across several seasons.

Hip 53 gives us exact-mating proof through a multiple Grade 1-winning full sister, backed by one of the deepest female families in the book.

Hip 235 gets there through championship juvenile class close to the subject and exceptional production farther down the page, with a mating that gives us more to think about.

Different constructions. Same standard.

We want serious racing ability close to the subject, production that gives us some confidence the class can repeat, and enough evidence at two and three to see a path toward a high-level racehorse.

We look forward to getting our eyes on these horses this weekend.