The Sire Market Is Getting Narrower
Four years of Keeneland September Books 1 and 2 show where buyer confidence is growing, where it is slipping and how much clearance matters.
There was plenty of money at Keeneland during the first two books of the September Yearling Sale.
Through four sessions, 633 yearlings sold through the ring for $318.1 million. The average reached $502,551, and 65 yearlings brought at least $1 million.
Put those numbers next to the previous three years and the shape of the market starts to become more interesting.
In 2023, 637 yearlings sold through the first two books for $234.3 million. This year, four fewer horses sold and the gross was nearly $84 million higher.
We went back through Books 1 and 2 from 2023 through 2026 and looked at the market horse by horse, with particular attention to sire performance, RNA rates, later reported sales and where the money has become concentrated.
Most of the interesting movement is around the stallions.
$84 Million More, Four Fewer Horses
Figure 1 · The market
More money, the same number of horses
Show the data
| Year | Sold | Gross | Average | Median | $1M+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 637 | $234.3M | $367,818 | $300,000 | 30 |
| 2024 | 640 | $252.5M | $394,575 | $300,000 | 36 |
| 2025 | 671 | $307.6M | $458,478 | $350,000 | 53 |
| 2026 | 633 | $318.1M | $502,551 | $360,000 | 65 |
The average has climbed nearly 37 percent in three years. The median is up 20 percent, and the number of million-dollar yearlings has more than doubled.
The spread between average and median gives us some sense of where the additional money is going. The strongest price growth has occurred above the middle of the market.
There were 30 million-dollar horses through Book 2 in 2023.
This year there were 65.
The market has added a lot more money without adding more transactions.
The Money Is Getting More Concentrated
The sire table has narrowed along with the price distribution.
In 2023, the top five sires accounted for about 37.5 percent of reported Books 1 and 2 gross.
This year they accounted for 46.8 percent.
The top ten went from 58.5 percent to 69.5 percent.
Figure 2 · Concentration
The buying bench stayed broad. Its money did not
Show the data
| Share of reported gross | 2023 | 2026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top 5 sires | 37.5% | 46.8% | +9.3 pts |
| Top 10 sires | 58.5% | 69.5% | +11.0 pts |
| Top 10 buyers | 27.0% | 26.5% | -0.5 pts |
Buyer concentration barely moved over the same period. The top ten buyer names represented roughly 27 percent of reported gross in 2023 and about 26.5 percent this year.
That is an interesting distinction.
The buying bench remains broad. More of its money is landing on the same stallions.
Gun Runner, Not This Time, Into Mischief, Flightline and Nyquist alone accounted for nearly half of reported Week 1 gross this year.
For breeders, that concentration creates a fairly obvious commercial consequence. Being attached to the right sire has become more valuable. Being outside that group can leave a horse competing for a smaller share of the money, even in a sale setting records.
Gun Runner's Ceiling Keeps Rising
Gun Runner led Books 1 and 2 with nearly $40 million in reported sales.
| Year | Gross | Average | Median | $1M+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | $13.5M | $450,000 | $387,500 | 3 |
| 2024 | $31.7M | $546,000 | $432,500 | 7 |
| 2025 | $33.6M | $933,000 | $825,000 | 12 |
| 2026 | $39.8M | $865,000 | $612,500 | 15 |
Fifteen Gun Runners brought at least $1 million this year, the most in our four-year Books 1 and 2 dataset. His $39.8 million gross was also a new high.
Last year's group still carried the stronger middle. The 2025 Gun Runners averaged $933,000 with an $825,000 median. This year the average came back to about $865,000 and the median to $612,500.
Supply explains part of the difference. Fifty-eight Gun Runners were offered in the first two books this year, compared with 41 last year.
The extra supply did very little damage at the top. Fifteen still made seven figures.
Farther down the draft, buyers were less aggressive than they were in 2025.
Remove the million-dollar horses and the remaining 2026 Gun Runners averaged roughly $468,000. The comparable group last year averaged about $579,000.
Gun Runner continues to produce the kind of yearling buyers will stretch very hard to own. This year simply gave us more separation between those horses and the rest of his draft.
His best yearlings keep finding another level.
Not This Time May Have the Cleanest Four-Year Progression
Not This Time's rise has looked different.
His average moved from roughly $403,000 in 2023 to $721,000 this year, while gross went from $8.1 million to $37.5 million.
The sale rate improved along with the prices.
In 2023, about 59 percent of his offered Books 1 and 2 yearlings were ultimately reported sold. That moved to 83 percent in 2024, 86 percent last year and 85 percent this year.
That is a useful progression because higher prices usually put more pressure on clearance. Reserves rise with expectations, buyers have more alternatives and the gap between what a seller wants and what the market will pay can widen quickly.
Not This Time has supported a much higher price level while still getting most of his Week 1 draft sold.
The strength also extends below the biggest horses.
Remove his million-dollar yearlings and the remaining 2026 sales averaged about $531,000, slightly higher than the comparable group last year.
A few years ago, Not This Time had a genuine clearance issue at the front of September.
The market has changed considerably since then.
Nyquist Has Moved Into Another Price Bracket
Nyquist has made one of the largest moves in the market.
His Books 1 and 2 gross rose from $7.5 million in 2023 to $24.6 million this year.
His average moved from $359,000 to $666,000.
He had no million-dollar yearlings in the first two books in 2023.
This year he had seven.
Thirty-seven of 41 offered Nyquists are now reported sold, a sale rate just above 90 percent.
The median gives the average some useful context. It eased from $500,000 last year to $475,000 this year, so the seven million-dollar horses clearly contributed to the jump.
Below $1 million, the market barely changed. Those horses averaged roughly $454,000 this year, almost exactly where the comparable group landed in 2025.
The existing market held while a much stronger group emerged at the top.
His catalog placement has moved with him. A greater share of Nyquist's Week 1 population now lands in Book 1 than it did three years ago.
That is another way of seeing the same shift. Keeneland and consignors are placing more of them where the most demanding buyers shop, and buyers are validating those placements in the ring.
Into Mischief's Best Are Still Into Mischief
Into Mischief's successful yearlings remain extremely expensive.
His reported Books 1 and 2 sales averaged $882,000 this year with a $725,000 median. Ten brought at least $1 million.
Thirty of 42 offered are currently reported sold, about 71 percent.
Buyers have years of experience with Into Mischief yearlings now. They have seen hundreds of them, raced them, bred to him and developed fairly specific opinions about the physicals and families they want.
The price distribution suggests most of this year's increase came from the horses at the very top.
Remove the ten million-dollar yearlings and the remaining sold group averaged roughly $528,000.
Last year's comparable group averaged about $531,000.
For an Into Mischief that checks the boxes, buyers will still stretch a long way. The $3.7 million colt out of Grazie Mille supplied the clearest example in Book 1.
Farther down the draft, buyers were willing to draw a harder line.
The best Into Mischiefs still occupy rare commercial territory. The sire name provides less insulation for the rest of the group than an average approaching $900,000 might suggest.
Justify Keeps Getting More Expensive and Harder to Sell
Justify has followed a particularly interesting four-year path.
His average has climbed from $300,000 in 2023 to $369,000 in 2024, $394,000 last year and $476,000 this year.
The share reported sold moved from 82 percent to 78 percent, 68 percent and now 65 percent.
That pattern has lasted long enough to deserve attention.
Figure 4 · Justify
Rising price, falling clearance, four years running
Show the data
| Year | Average | Share reported sold |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 | $300,000 | 82% |
| 2024 | $369,000 | 78% |
| 2025 | $394,000 | 68% |
| 2026 | $476,000 | 65% |
The 2026 median was $350,000, the same as last year. Three million-dollar horses lifted the average considerably.
Remove those three and the rest of the sold group averaged roughly $398,000, very close to Justify's overall average in 2025.
Most of the apparent price acceleration this year came from a handful of horses at the top.
The clearance trend has been much more persistent.
There are several possible explanations. Seller expectations matter. Individual type matters. The female family can matter a great deal with a sire whose highest-profile success spans very different racing programs around the world.
The sales data cannot separate those effects cleanly.
It does show that buyers have become increasingly selective with his yearlings over four consecutive September sales.
Constitution Is Cooling
Constitution gives us one of the clearer cooling signals among the established sires.
The supply barely changed.
Thirty were offered in 2025.
Twenty-nine were offered this year.
Last year's reported sales grossed about $11.4 million and averaged $456,000 with a $350,000 median.
This year, gross fell to $6.75 million. The average fell to $307,000 and the median to $275,000.
No Constitution brought $1 million in the first two books.
Twenty-two of the 29 offered are currently reported sold, so buyers are still there. They are paying less than they were a year ago.
The similar number offered makes the comparison especially useful. Gross did not fall because his representation disappeared from the catalog.
Books 3 and beyond will add more horses to the sample. Through the first two books, his commercial market has clearly cooled.
Life Is Good Passed the Second-Crop Test
Life Is Good's first yearlings averaged roughly $393,000 in Books 1 and 2 last year, with a $362,500 median.
This year they averaged about $463,000 with a $400,000 median.
Thirty-one of 34 offered are now reported sold.
He generated more gross with fewer horses offered.
Second crops can be revealing. Some of the novelty attached to a first yearling crop has worn off, and buyers have had another year to develop opinions about the stock.
Life Is Good came through that second sale with higher prices and better clearance.
His results were also less dependent on a few extreme prices than several of the larger sire groups. Only one reached $1 million, yet the group still averaged more than $460,000.
That gives the result some depth.
Flightline Lost Some of the First-Crop Premium
Flightline's first yearlings arrived with an unusual amount of attention.
Across Books 1 and 2 last year, they averaged about $763,000 with a $600,000 median. Eight brought at least $1 million.
This year the average eased to about $707,000 and the median to $500,000.
Eight again brought seven figures.
The sale rate moved from roughly 86 percent to 80 percent.
The second crop came back from the first, particularly through the middle of the group. Demand for the best individuals remained strong.
That is probably the most useful way to read Flightline at this stage.
Buyers no longer have to price his yearlings entirely as an unknown quantity. His first runners are beginning to give them more information, and the market has become somewhat more selective without giving up much at the top.
The next move will depend increasingly on what those runners do.
Uncle Mo's Final Crop Found a Premium
Uncle Mo's four-year line had been moving in the other direction.
His Books 1 and 2 average went from roughly $490,000 in 2023 to $414,000 in 2024 and $324,000 last year.
This year it returned to about $486,000, with a $392,500 median.
Forty-two of 48 offered are now reported sold.
Four brought at least $1 million after he had none at that level through the first two books last year.
The final-crop factor is difficult to isolate from the quality of the individual horses, though the market clearly gave this group more support than it gave the 2025 group.
Buyers know the supply is ending.
They also have years of evidence about what an Uncle Mo can become as a racehorse and, in the right case, as a stallion or broodmare.
That combination gives scarcity some weight.
A Few More Sires Worth Watching
Tapit had a softer Week 1 after two stronger years.
His average returned to roughly $490,000 after reaching $653,000 last year, while the median fell from $550,000 to $350,000. Thirteen of 19 offered are currently reported sold.
The 2026 average is close to his 2023 level, so this looks more like a reset from the stronger 2024 and 2025 markets than a longer-term slide.
Good Magic's average kept moving upward and reached roughly $490,000 this year.
Three million-dollar horses did a fair amount of work on that number. Without them, the remaining group averaged about $359,000, only a little higher than the comparable group last year.
His best yearlings moved faster than the middle.
Munnings has moved more sharply.
His Books 1 and 2 average went from roughly $287,000 in 2023 to $294,000 in 2024, $249,000 last year and $89,000 this year. His median and sale rate have declined as well, and his representation at the front of the sale has become much smaller.
The 2026 sample is only eight reported sales, so later books matter here.
The direction through Book 2 is still difficult to miss.
A few smaller sire groups moved the other way.
Yaupon has put together three years of steady commercial improvement, with his Books 1 and 2 average moving from roughly $282,000 in 2024 to $347,000 last year and $371,000 this year.
Girvin had ten offered this year and all ten are currently reported sold. They averaged $467,500 with a $475,000 median.
Vekoma's Week 1 average has moved from roughly $187,000 in 2023 to $351,000, $354,000 and now $386,000. Eight of ten offered this year found buyers.
Maxfield also deserves a look.
His Books 1 and 2 average rose from $285,625 last year to $450,000 this year, although only five sold. The median moved almost in lockstep, from $237,500 to $375,000, while his sale rate improved modestly from 57 percent to 63 percent.
The sample is small, but the move was broader than one expensive yearling lifting the average.
Those are smaller populations and lower price bands than the sires at the top of the table.
For a large part of the commercial breeding business, they are every bit as relevant.
Figure 3 · Price against clearance
At every price, a wide spread in what actually sells
Show the data
| Sire | 2026 average | Share reported sold |
|---|---|---|
| Into Mischief | $882,000 | 71.4% (30 of 42) |
| Not This Time | $721,000 | 85% |
| Flightline | $707,000 | 80% |
| Nyquist | $666,000 | 90.2% (37 of 41) |
| Tapit | $490,000 | 68.4% (13 of 19) |
| Uncle Mo | $486,000 | 87.5% (42 of 48) |
| Justify | $476,000 | 65% |
| Girvin | $467,500 | 100.0% (10 of 10) |
| Life Is Good | $463,000 | 91.2% (31 of 34) |
| Vekoma | $386,000 | 80.0% (8 of 10) |
| Constitution | $307,000 | 75.9% (22 of 29) |
| Gun Runner | $865,109 | 79.3% (46 of 58) |
| Good Magic | $490,250 | 71.4% (20 of 28) |
| Yaupon | $371,154 | 81.3% (13 of 16) |
| Munnings | $89,375 | 53.3% (8 of 15) |
| Maxfield | $450,000 | 62.5% (5 of 8) |
The RNAs Are Getting More Expensive
The overall clearance figures make 2026 look weaker than last year.
Over a longer window, the difference looks less dramatic.
Initial through-ring clearance ran around 71 percent in 2023, 70 percent in 2024, 73 percent last year and 70 percent this year.
Seen over four years, 2025 looks like the unusually efficient market.
The level of the unsuccessful bids has changed more noticeably.
The median bid on horses that still remain unresolved RNAs was about $170,000 in 2023 and 2024.
It rose to $182,500 last year.
This year it sits around $235,000.
That is a meaningful amount of money failing to complete a transaction.
It also changes how we should think about a 30 percent RNA rate.
There is still substantial demand underneath the sold population. In many cases, buyers and sellers are disagreeing at a much higher number than they did three years ago.
Later transactions close some of that gap. A portion of the RNAs in every year subsequently appeared as reported sales.
That conversion has been slower so far in 2026 than it was last year.
The early read is fairly simple. Buyers are still bidding serious money, and sellers are asking serious money too.
Where the Sire Market Has Moved
Four years gives us enough history to separate some of the one-year noise from the more persistent trends.
Figure 5 · The movers
Where the money went, 2025 to 2026
Show the data
| Sire | 2025 average | 2026 average | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Maxfield | $285,625 | $450,000 | +58% |
| Uncle Mo | $324,000 | $486,000 | +50% |
| Justify | $394,000 | $476,000 | +21% |
| Life Is Good | $393,000 | $463,000 | +18% |
| Vekoma | $354,000 | $386,000 | +9% |
| Yaupon | $347,000 | $371,000 | +7% |
| Gun Runner | $933,000 | $865,000 | -7% |
| Flightline | $763,000 | $707,000 | -7% |
| Tapit | $653,000 | $490,000 | -25% |
| Constitution | $456,000 | $307,000 | -33% |
| Munnings | $249,000 | $89,000 | -64% |
Gun Runner has developed the largest commercial market in the sale, with a higher ceiling than ever and a middle that came back from the extraordinary prices of 2025.
Not This Time has combined a major increase in value with unusually broad demand through the draft.
Nyquist has moved into another price bracket while maintaining one of the strongest sale rates among the major sires.
Into Mischief still produces some of the most valuable yearlings on the grounds. Buyers have become more exacting with the rest.
Justify has now produced several years of rising headline prices alongside declining clearance.
Life Is Good strengthened in his second year. Flightline lost some of the first-crop premium while keeping a strong seven-figure market.
Constitution cooled on almost identical supply.
Tapit returned toward his earlier price range after two stronger years, while Munnings has lost price, clearance and Week 1 representation.
The broader change may be the more important one.
Books 1 and 2 sold almost exactly the same number of horses through the ring this year as they did in 2023, yet buyers spent nearly $84 million more.
At the same time, the top ten sires increased their share of reported gross from roughly 59 percent to almost 70 percent.
The buyer base has stayed broad.
Its preferences have become more concentrated.
One final point is worth keeping in mind. Everything above is a read on the commercial market, which is useful in its own right for breeders, consignors and buyers making decisions about matings, placement and acquisition. It says much less about which of these yearlings will ultimately become the best racehorses. Some of the expensive horses will justify their prices, and some very good horses will emerge from much farther down the catalog. We have seen enough September sales to know that the auction and the racetrack answer different questions.