The Pinhook Math at Fasig-Tipton October

The work we’re doing at Thoroughbred Intelligence began attracting a wider audience when we published our Keeneland September pinhook tracker earlier this fall. We had assembled the public-auction purchase histories and subsequent sale results in one place, making it easy for anyone to look up individual horses, compare prices and see how the pinhooks performed.

The response was gratifying. I heard from quite a few people who appreciated having the information organized and readily accessible, and several asked whether we would do the same for Fasig-Tipton October.

That was an easy decision. October is particularly interesting for pinhookers because it represents the last major opportunity to move yearling inventory before winter. Many horses have already been through Keeneland September, sellers have carrying costs and future sale options to consider, and buyers know the calendar is getting short.

We identified 311 yearlings in the October catalog that had previously been purchased at public auction as weanlings or short yearlings. We matched their original purchase records to the October entries and followed the results through the conclusion of the sale.

Every one of those horses is available in our Fasig-Tipton October Pinhook Tracker, including purchase prices, resale results, gross multiples and Keeneland September histories.

The results were considerably tougher than last year, and several findings surprised me. Acquisition prices made an enormous difference, winter purchases performed substantially better than fall weanlings, and the expensive first-crop prospects struggled.

The biggest surprise was how much additional money had been invested in this year’s group. Nearly $25 million in original purchase costs stood behind the 311 cataloged horses, 71% more than last year. The 212 that sold had cost $15.5 million and brought $14.5 million, about 93 cents on the dollar, against $1.30 last year.

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More Money Invested, Thinner Returns

Last year’s October catalog included 249 identifiable public-auction pinhooks with $14.6 million in original purchase costs. This year, the population increased to 311, carrying $25 million in acquisition costs.

The increase came from both volume and price. There were 25% more horses, while the average original purchase price increased approximately 37%, from $58,800 to $80,300.

Pinhookers were bringing a larger and more expensive group of horses into October.

The percentage selling through the ring fell sharply. Pinhook clearance declined from 82.6% to 74.6%, while clearance for the rest of the October catalog remained essentially unchanged at approximately 79%.

Among the 197 pinhooks that sold through the ring, the median gross resale multiple was 1.12 times the original purchase price, compared with 1.46 last year.

A median above 1.00 suggests that the typical successful resale brought more than its purchase cost. The aggregate results tell a less encouraging story.

Those 197 horses had originally cost $14.45 million and brought $13.86 million at October, a $591,500 shortfall before expenses. Of the group, 107 sold above cost, generating $4.03 million in gross gains, while 82 sold below cost, giving back $4.62 million. Eight sold for exactly their purchase prices.

Including the 15 reported post-sales, all 212 completed transactions generated $14.49 million against $15.51 million in original acquisition costs. That’s approximately $1.03 million less than the purchase prices alone, before commissions, board, preparation, insurance and financing.

The remaining 99 horses account for another $9.47 million in original purchase costs. Fifty-two were bought back and 47 were withdrawn, leaving 37.9% of the tracked population’s acquisition capital in horses that failed to sell at October.

Figure 1 · Cost and proceeds

The pinhooks that sold brought $0.93 per dollar of cost, against $1.30 last year.

Show the data

Year	Sold	Their cost	They brought	Per dollar of cost	Bought back or withdrawn: purchase price
2025	179	$11,151,100	$14,512,000	$1.30	$3,488,900
2026	212	$15,512,000	$14,485,500	$0.93	$9,465,200

Those horses remain assets. Some will race, others may sell privately or return at the two-year-olds-in-training sales, and their ultimate outcomes will depend on what happens next.

For the horses offered at October, the sale generated 74 cents in proceeds for every dollar of original purchase cost represented in that group. That’s a measure of realized proceeds relative to the acquisition basis, including unsold horses, rather than a final investment return.

These distinctions matter when assessing a pinhooking operation. An individual resale can produce an attractive gross multiple while the broader group struggles with losses on other horses and capital tied up in inventory.

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What You Paid Made an Enormous Difference

The relationship between original purchase price and resale performance was one of the strongest patterns in the data.

Of the 66 pinhooks purchased for less than $25,000 that sold through the ring, 59 brought at least their original cost. Their median gross multiple was 2.39 times purchase price, and the group generated $1.12 million more than the horses originally cost.

The middle of the market was more mixed. Horses bought between $25,000 and $99,999 produced a 1.14 times median, with 30 of 71 selling below cost.

The most expensive purchases had a much harder time.

The 60 horses originally purchased for $100,000 or more cost a combined $10.38 million and brought $7.05 million. Forty-five sold below their original purchase prices, producing a combined shortfall of $3.33 million before expenses.

Figure 2 · Price paid decided it

Cheap pinhooks made money in either season; $100,000 pinhooks lost it in either.

Show the data

Purchase price	Fall sold	Fall median	Fall below cost	Winter sold	Winter median	Winter below cost
Under $25,000	28	1.88x	5	38	2.93x	2
$25,000 to $99,999	47	1.11x	21	24	1.25x	9
$100,000 and up	40	0.62x	32	20	0.80x	13

Some of the individual outcomes were extraordinary.

Hip 424, a Speaker’s Corner filly out of Vanna Belle, had been purchased for $2,000 at Keeneland January and sold for $35,000 at October. That’s 17.5 times the original cost, although the relatively small investment means the gross dollar gain was $33,000.

Two horses consigned by Woods Edge Farm produced substantial dollar gains. Hip 1498, an Authentic colt out of Nora’s Joy, went from $85,000 at Keeneland November to $400,000 at October. Hip 1270, a Tiz the Law colt out of Leah Forestiere, was purchased for $90,000 and sold for $370,000.

At the other end, Hip 1313, a Munnings filly out of Lucy N Ethel, was purchased for $250,000 at Keeneland November and sold for $13,000. Hip 1061, a Practical Joke colt out of Gone To Town, went from a $270,000 purchase to a $35,000 resale.

There are individual circumstances behind each result that public auction data alone cannot explain. Physical development, veterinary findings, pedigree updates and the original buyer’s expectations can all influence the eventual resale price.

The broader pattern nevertheless raises an important question about acquisition discipline.

A $15,000 weanling can double its purchase price by selling for $30,000, a fairly ordinary transaction at a major Kentucky yearling sale. A $200,000 weanling must bring substantially more just to cover the original investment and the additional costs of getting the horse back to market.

The potential upside from an inexpensive purchase can be attractive, although a large percentage return on a small investment may leave relatively little dollar profit after expenses. At the upper end, the investment requires a much stronger resale result, and the amount of capital exposed to a disappointing outcome is considerably greater.

These figures describe horses that successfully sold through the ring. Accounting for RNAs and withdrawals, along with the cost of carrying each horse, is essential when turning the observed multiples into an investment strategy.

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Winter Purchases Outperformed Fall Weanlings

We separated the horses originally purchased as weanlings during the fall of 2025 from those acquired as short yearlings at the January and February mixed sales.

Among the successful October ring sales, 115 had been purchased the previous fall. Their median gross resale multiple was 0.93 times cost, and 58 sold below their original purchase prices.

The 82 horses purchased during the winter generated a 1.55 times median, with 24 selling below cost.

Winter purchases tended to be less expensive. The median original purchase price among these successful resales was $25,000, compared with $50,000 for fall purchases.

To account for some of that difference, we compared the two groups within the same original purchase-price ranges.

Winter acquisitions outperformed in every price range, although the size of the advantage varied.

Even the relatively expensive winter purchases performed better than comparable fall purchases. The 20 winter acquisitions costing $100,000 or more generated a median 0.80 times cost, compared with 0.62 for the 40 fall weanlings in that range.

Both groups had substantial numbers of horses selling below their acquisition prices, but the fall group was particularly difficult. Thirty-two of those 40 horses brought less than cost.

Purchase timing affects the economics in another way. A short yearling bought in January or February spends several fewer months on the farm than a weanling purchased the previous November, potentially reducing expenses for board, veterinary care and preparation.

That advantage would tend to favor winter purchases even more once carrying costs are considered.

There are important differences between the populations. The horses selected for November and January sales may differ in pedigree, physical development and overall quality. Buyer competition, seller motivation and market conditions also change between sales.

We saw a similar advantage for winter purchases in our Keeneland September pinhook study. I want to examine the pattern across more years and compare horses with similar acquisition prices, sire profiles and eventual resale destinations before deciding how much of the difference can be attributed to purchase timing itself.

For someone planning a pinhooking program, the consistency is certainly worth paying attention to.

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The First-Crop Sire Premium Was Expensive

Young stallions are a natural hunting ground for pinhookers. Buying a weanling from a first crop offers the possibility of getting in before the sire develops a commercial reputation and before buyers have seen a full draft of his yearlings.

That uncertainty is part of the opportunity, but the original purchase price still has to make sense.

At October, pinhooks by first-crop sires had been purchased for a median $64,500. They cleared the ring at 68%, the lowest rate among the sire-crop groups we examined, and their successful ring sales produced a median gross multiple of 0.87 times cost.

Thirty-seven of the 66 that sold brought less than their original purchase prices.

By comparison, second-crop sire pinhooks generated a 1.56 times median gross multiple. Their median original purchase price was considerably lower at $24,500.

The individual stallion results show how much that difference matters.

Pappacap’s five pinhooks that sold through the ring had a median original purchase price of $30,000 and returned a median 2.60 times cost. Only one sold below its original purchase price.

Gunite’s seven successful pinhooks had been purchased for a median $200,000 and produced a 0.50 times median multiple. Six of the seven brought less than cost.

Forte’s five pinhooks also carried a $200,000 median original purchase price. All five sold below cost, with a median multiple of 0.47 times.

Authentic offers an interesting comparison from an established sire. His five successful October pinhooks had been purchased for a median $20,000 and generated a 2.50 times median multiple, despite his yearlings operating at a much lower commercial price point than those of many of the newer, heavily promoted stallions.

These are small individual sire samples, and the results measure the economics of particular horses purchased at particular prices. They tell us little by themselves about what these stallions will ultimately accomplish on the racetrack.

For me, the more useful lesson is how demanding the acquisition price becomes when buyers pay substantial premiums for an unproven sire.

Of the 23 first-crop pinhooks originally purchased for $100,000 or more that sold through the ring at October, only two recovered their purchase price.

That is a difficult result for a group of horses whose original buyers were making their decisions largely on the stallion’s racing credentials, pedigree and the appeal of his first foals.

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The Keeneland Detour Cost Money

Twenty-six of the October pinhooks had already gone through the ring at Keeneland September and been bought back.

These horses carried substantial original investments, with a median acquisition price of $200,000 and a median published Keeneland RNA of $252,500.

Nineteen were offered again at October, and 15 sold through the ring. Their median resale multiple was 0.70 times original purchase cost, and their median October price was 0.59 times the published Keeneland RNA.

The 15 completed ring sales generated $843,000 less than their original acquisition costs.

Horses that followed other routes performed better.

The Keeneland RNA group had the highest October ring clearance of the three, despite producing the lowest resale multiples.

The numbers describe quite different populations. Horses taken through Keeneland and bought back tended to have higher acquisition prices and seller expectations, and their subsequent October outcomes reflect those characteristics alongside whatever happened during the intervening weeks.

Hip 499 illustrates how much capital can remain committed to a horse across two unsuccessful sales. The Up to the Mark colt out of Zee Drop cost $400,000 at Fasig-Tipton November, was bought back for a published $900,000 at Keeneland September and returned an RNA of $585,000 at October.

The horse remains unsold in the public auction record, with the original investment still behind him.

There were successful exceptions. Hip 328, a Constitution yearling out of Team of Teams, was purchased for $310,000 at Keeneland January, bought back at Keeneland September for $225,000, then sold at October for $360,000. That represented a gross return of approximately 1.16 times the original purchase price.

Both horses demonstrate why individual circumstances matter, although the group-level results suggest that October was a difficult recovery market for pinhookers who had already failed to meet their expectations at Keeneland.

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What I’ll Be Looking for in November

In a few weeks, many of the weanlings that will appear in next year’s pinhook trackers will begin changing hands at the November breeding stock sales.

Pinhooking interests me because it rewards a combination of horsemanship and commercial judgment. The buyer has to recognize potential in a young horse, assess how it may develop, anticipate the market months ahead and purchase at a price that leaves room for the investment to work.

There is real money to be made, as several of this year’s successful resales demonstrate. The broader population also shows how quickly that opportunity can disappear when the original purchase price becomes too ambitious or a horse fails to find a buyer.

This year’s results would make me particularly attentive to the acquisition price of expensive first-crop weanlings and to the differences between buying in November and waiting until January or February.

I also want to know how those opportunities hold up when we account for the entire group purchased, including withdrawals, RNAs and subsequent sales. A program that produces several attractive multiples can still have disappointing overall economics if too much capital remains tied up in unsold horses.

We’ll be exploring those questions in our planned November guide to pinhooking, drawing on what we’ve learned at both Keeneland September and Fasig-Tipton October and extending the analysis across earlier sales.

As we evaluate the coming weanling catalogs, the starting point will be the same questions we use in our own buying work: what is the horse likely to be worth as a yearling, how much confidence do we have in that assessment, and what purchase price leaves a reasonable margin after the costs and risks of getting there?

Methodology. Thoroughbred Intelligence identified 311 yearlings in the 2026 Fasig-Tipton Kentucky October catalog with documented completed public-auction purchases as weanlings or short yearlings at six sales between October 2025 and February 2026. Horses were matched using dam, foaling year and sire records. The 2025 comparison includes 249 similarly identified horses. Private transactions and changes in ownership between public sales may be absent from the available records. Results use the October 22, 2026 export and may change with subsequent reported transactions. Gross resale multiples equal the October sale price divided by the recorded original purchase price, before commissions, board, veterinary care, insurance, preparation, financing and other expenses. Median multiples, below-cost counts and gross spreads use ring sales only; total proceeds include identifiable post-sales. Ring clearance equals ring sales divided by horses offered. Unsold horses remain assets, and comparisons between purchase costs and realized proceeds should be interpreted as transaction-level and inventory measures rather than final investment returns. Sources: Fasig-Tipton, Keeneland and OBS.