Inside a Near-Record Fasig-Tipton October

By the time Fasig-Tipton October rolls around, Saratoga feels like another season and the Keeneland September marathon is finally behind us. There is a different atmosphere at the Newtown Paddocks in Lexington. For many commercial breeders and sellers, October represents the last major opportunity to sell a yearling before winter.

The alternatives become more expensive from here. Keeping a horse means additional months of board, care and preparation, and potentially the expense and uncertainty of the two-year-olds-in-training sales. A horse that fails to meet expectations at a breeze show can lose a substantial amount of commercial value in a matter of seconds. Some horses will improve enough to justify the decision, but the financial commitment is considerable.

For buyers, the incentives are different. Trainers are still filling orders, owners are looking for opportunities they may have missed earlier in the season, and pinhookers have one more large catalog to work through before turning their attention to the coming crop. Sellers have decisions to make, and buyers know the calendar is working in their favor.

I’ve always thought of Fasig-Tipton October as the last call of the major yearling season. That combination of urgency and opportunity creates an interesting marketplace, particularly when a horse has already been offered somewhere else.

Coming off Keeneland September’s record $558.3 million sale, I was curious how that dynamic would play out this year. Fasig-Tipton October finished with $65.9 million in gross sales, down 8.5% from last year’s record, and the average declined 8%. Yet almost exactly the same number of horses sold, and the median held at $30,000.

We went back through both years of October results, matched the horses that had previously been cataloged at Keeneland, and looked closely at the sire populations, price distributions, clearance rates and buyers.

The findings help explain the decline, including one group of young stallions whose yearlings were repriced sharply.

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The Median Held, but the Top End Thinned

Fasig-Tipton sold 1,096 yearlings this year, including reported post-sales, compared with 1,103 in 2025. That’s seven fewer horses from a catalog of more than 1,600.

Ring clearance softened slightly from 79.6% to 78.3%, although the overall number of transactions remained remarkably stable. The most significant change came in the distribution of prices.

At the bottom of the market, fewer horses sold for less than $10,000. That group declined from 202 to 147, while the number selling between $10,000 and $24,999 increased from 248 to 301.

The $100,000 to $199,999 segment also grew, from 126 horses last year to 143 this year.

The upper end went the other direction. Ninety yearlings sold for $200,000 or more in 2025, compared with 64 this year. The $200,000 to $499,999 segment alone generated $16 million in gross, down from $24.3 million.

That is where much of the missing revenue went. October continued to attract buyers through its middle price ranges, but substantially fewer horses commanded the prices that had helped produce last year’s record.

Figure 1 · Where the horses sold

The bottom moved up a band and the top thinned.

Show the data

Price	Sold 2025	Sold 2026	Gross 2025	Gross 2026
Under $10,000	202	147	$973,500	$766,500
$10,000 to $24,999	248	301	$3,832,500	$4,724,000
$25,000 to $49,999	235	238	$7,942,000	$7,977,500
$50,000 to $99,999	202	203	$13,523,000	$13,662,000
$100,000 to $199,999	126	143	$17,165,000	$18,765,000
$200,000 to $499,999	83	58	$24,335,000	$16,000,000
$500,000 and up	7	6	$4,300,000	$4,025,000

Concentration declined as well. The most expensive 10% of sold yearlings accounted for 41.8% of gross, compared with 44.8% a year ago.

It is worth keeping the broader context in mind. Fasig-Tipton described the result as a near-record sale, and $65.9 million represents substantial commerce. The interesting question is why this market moved in the opposite direction from Keeneland, where gross increased 5% and the median rose from $80,000 to $85,000.

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Where the $6.15 Million Went

The clearest explanation came when we separated the 26 stallions whose first yearlings sold at October in 2025 from every other sire in the catalog.

Last year, those 26 sires had 478 yearlings cataloged and 340 sold, at a $35,000 median and a $60,615 average.

This year, 328 were cataloged and 225 sold, at a $25,000 median and a $50,133 average, 17.3% lower.

The rest of the sale sold 108 more horses than last year. Their median rose from $30,000 to $35,000, while their average fell 7.0%, from $67,447 to $62,732.

Almost the same number of horses sold in both years, so the $6.15 million decline is a price story. At this year’s numbers sold, lower prices among the second-crop yearlings account for $2.36 million of it and lower prices among everyone else’s for $4.11 million.

The second-crop results fit something we’ve been studying for several months.

In our analysis of the 2023 stallion class at Keeneland September, we found that second-crop yearlings generally lose commercial value relative to the first crop, even when the overall sale is improving. Buyers have seen the first yearlings, the stallions have begun producing runners, and expectations are becoming more closely tied to actual results.

October appears to have experienced a particularly pronounced version of that adjustment.

Among the 12 second-crop sires with at least eight yearlings sold in both October sales, ten had lower medians this year. Jack Christopher, Epicenter, Olympiad and Cyberknife were among those repriced downward. Golden Pal and Jackie’s Warrior were exceptions, with higher medians.

Figure 2 · The second crop

Ten of twelve sold for less than their first crops.

Show the data

Sire	2025 sold	2025 median	2026 sold	2026 median	Change
Mystic Guide	15	$40,000	9	$10,000	-75.0%
Cyberknife	21	$62,000	19	$17,000	-72.6%
Epicenter	28	$75,000	18	$26,000	-65.3%
Nashville	22	$42,000	13	$15,000	-64.3%
Jack Christopher	18	$50,000	17	$20,000	-60.0%
Life Is Good	9	$240,000	13	$120,000	-50.0%
Olympiad	16	$45,000	30	$25,000	-44.4%
Speaker’s Corner	15	$40,000	12	$25,000	-37.5%
Mo Donegal	14	$30,000	10	$22,500	-25.0%
Drain the Clock	28	$40,000	8	$37,500	-6.3%
Jackie’s Warrior	14	$80,000	13	$100,000	25.0%
Golden Pal	17	$30,000	14	$38,500	28.3%

Some of those horses may yet develop into excellent sires. The first juvenile season provides only an early look at what they can produce, particularly for stallions whose own best racing came at three or over longer distances. The commercial market still has to make decisions with the evidence available.

The second-crop yearlings took the sharpest price cut. The fall in gross came from lower prices across the sale.

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The Second Chance Became Harder to Sell

The Keeneland carryovers deserve their own examination because their results reveal something beyond the second-crop stallion cycle.

We matched 522 October yearlings to the 2026 Keeneland September catalog, compared with 549 in 2025. These include horses withdrawn at Keeneland as well as those that went through the ring and failed to meet their reserves.

The group generated $31.7 million at October from 335 sales, against $37.2 million from 382 last year.

What caught my attention was how differently the upper-book and lower-book horses performed.

Among yearlings previously cataloged in Keeneland’s first three books, October ring clearance fell from 84.8% to 71.9%. The median declined from $125,000 to $115,000.

Even after removing every second-crop sire, the deterioration remained substantial. Upper-book clearance fell from 86.8% to 71.0%, and the median declined from $127,500 to $100,000. There were actually more of these horses cataloged this year, 217 compared with 155.

The lower-book carryovers behaved quite differently. Horses previously cataloged in Keeneland Books 4 through 5B maintained virtually unchanged clearance, 79.4% last year and 79.6% this year.

Figure 3 · Withdrawn at Keeneland

October cleared fewer of the top books’ withdrawals.

Show the data

Keeneland book	2025 offered	2025 clearance	2025 median	2026 offered	2026 clearance	2026 median
Book 1	23	78.3%	$165,000	20	65.0%	$122,500
Book 2	37	86.5%	$167,500	55	72.7%	$150,000
Book 3	37	89.2%	$130,000	36	69.4%	$100,000
Book 4	35	82.9%	$95,000	24	87.5%	$65,000
Book 5A	53	81.1%	$35,000	34	85.3%	$55,000
Book 5B	180	77.2%	$30,000	182	77.5%	$30,000

The Keeneland RNAs offer another perspective.

Ahead of the sale, we published a five-year study of Keeneland September RNAs returning at Fasig-Tipton October. Historically, most of the horses offered again found buyers, although recovering the published September buy-back figure was considerably less common.

This year’s results were especially difficult.

Of the 92 Keeneland RNAs cataloged at October, 57 eventually sold. Their ring clearance was 74.0%, down from 85.5% last year, and the median completed sale brought just 63% of its published Keeneland RNA. Last year’s equivalent figure was 88%.

Only 13 of the 57 completed sales met or exceeded their September figure, compared with 26 of 73 last year.

Figure 4 · The second chance

Every band of Keeneland RNA recovered less of its September price.

Show the data

Keeneland RNA	2025 sold	2025 median ratio	2025 at or above RNA	2026 sold	2026 median ratio	2026 at or above RNA
RNA under $100,000	30	0.89	10	13	0.67	5
RNA $100,000 to $199,999	27	0.83	8	21	0.54	0
RNA $200,000 and up	16	0.95	8	23	0.83	8

There were exceptions. Hip 755, an Into Mischief colt out of Co Cola, had been bought back at Keeneland for $625,000 and sold at October for $700,000 to DJ Stable. The colt is a half-brother to Grade 1 winner Search Results, and trainer Mark Casse identified him as a horse he particularly wanted for his client.

Other sellers faced more difficult decisions. Hip 499, an Up to the Mark yearling out of Zee Drop with a documented $400,000 acquisition cost, was recorded as an RNA at $900,000 at Keeneland and returned an RNA of $585,000 at October.

Those RNA figures are the final published buy-back bids, which may include seller-side bidding. They establish reference points for comparison, although the records do not reveal the actual reserve or how much independent bidding occurred.

The horse-by-horse results matter because October can work very well for the right individual. This year, however, the historical advantage enjoyed by Keeneland RNAs disappeared, and the upper-book population encountered considerably more resistance than it did in 2025.

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Keeneland’s Strong Filly Market Stayed at Keeneland

The difference between colts and fillies was another surprise.

At Keeneland September, fillies had an excellent year. Their gross increased 10.4%, the median rose from $65,000 to $75,000, and ring clearance improved from 74.7% to 77.4%.

October went in the opposite direction.

Filly gross fell 17.7%, from $31.9 million to $26.2 million. The median declined from $30,000 to $27,000, while clearance slipped from 78.9% to 76.2%.

The number of fillies selling for $200,000 or more dropped from 40 to 21.

The greatest weakness again appeared among horses previously cataloged in Keeneland’s first three books.

Last year, 82.9% of those upper-book fillies offered at October sold through the ring. This year, only 40 of 67 sold, a clearance rate of 59.7%. Their gross declined from $9.7 million to $5.5 million.

Removing the second-crop stallions barely changes the story. Upper-book filly clearance among the remaining sires fell from 85.2% to 60.7%.

There were some exceptional fillies at the sale. Hip 426, an Uncle Mo filly out of Velvet Crush, brought $800,000 from Donato Lanni for Lundergan Racing Stables. Hip 996, a Nyquist filly out of Free Cover and a full sister to Champagne Stakes runner-up Gaudreau, sold for $725,000 to Young Squirrel Stables.

Those results demonstrate that substantial money was available for fillies with the right physicals and pedigrees. The broader population had a harder time meeting seller expectations.

I would be careful about attributing the difference entirely to buyer preference for colts. Physical quality, veterinary findings, pedigree and reserves all affect individual results. Yet the contrast is substantial enough to warrant attention from breeders and consignors deciding where to place a commercial filly.

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The Buyers and Sellers Behind the Numbers

October’s buyer population also helps explain the shape of the market.

At Keeneland September, buyers acquiring five or more yearlings accounted for 43% of completed sales. At Fasig-Tipton October, the equivalent figure was 22.9%.

Under our normalized buyer records, 67.7% of October buyer accounts purchased exactly one horse, compared with 57.4% at Keeneland. The ten largest October buyers accounted for 16% of gross, down from 22.2% last year.

Large operations still made substantial purchases. Kenneth McPeek bought 15 yearlings for $1.24 million, while NRKH Agency acquired 23 for $460,000. Their activity illustrates the range of price points and buying strategies represented at October.

On the consignor side, Gainesway narrowly passed Taylor Made in gross by approximately $24,000. Gainesway sold 102 horses, up from 57 last year, while Taylor Made sold 100, compared with 127 in 2025.

Machmer Hall provides an especially useful example of why I like to examine both clearance and catalog conversion.

At October, Machmer Hall sold all 18 horses it offered through the ring, a perfect 100% clearance rate. It had 28 yearlings cataloged, however, making its catalog conversion 64.3%.

At Keeneland September, its ring clearance was 65.6%, with 80 of 122 offered horses selling in the ring and another 16 recorded as post-sales. Including those transactions, its catalog conversion was 65.3%, remarkably close to its October result.

The two sales produced very different ring clearance figures, yet nearly identical percentages of cataloged horses ultimately sold.

For consignors managing large drafts, I think both measures are important. Clearance describes what happened to the horses presented in the ring. Catalog conversion tells us how much of the original draft ultimately became a completed sale.

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What the Pinhookers Actually Made

Our October pinhook tracker identified 311 yearlings purchased at public auction and returned for resale, representing approximately $25 million in acquisition costs.

Of the 264 offered, 197 sold through the ring, another 15 sold afterward, and 52 were bought back. Forty-seven were withdrawn.

The median gross resale multiple among the ring sales was 1.12 times acquisition cost, which appears respectable until we look at the full population.

Those 197 successful ring sales represented $14.45 million in acquisition costs and generated $13.86 million in gross proceeds. The aggregate return was below cost even though the median individual multiple was above one.

There was considerable variation among horses. Eighty-two of the 197 ring sales brought less than their original purchase price.

The amount of capital remaining in unsold horses was also substantial. RNAs and withdrawals represented 37.9% of the entire tracked group’s acquisition basis.

Where the horses were purchased appears to have mattered.

Fall weanling purchases generated a median gross resale multiple of 0.93 times cost, compared with 1.55 times for horses acquired as short yearlings during the winter. The winter group outperformed at every purchase-price level we examined, although the populations differ in ways that warrant further study.

We will explore those distinctions in greater depth in our planned November guide to pinhooking, including the importance of acquisition price, clearance and the capital committed to horses that never sell.

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How Our October Preview Held Up

In our October 2 preview, we made several observations and predictions about how the catalog might perform. The completed sale gives us an opportunity to revisit them.

The Keeneland RNA result was the biggest surprise to me. Five years of historical results had supported the idea that these horses would find a relatively receptive market at October.

The weaker clearance, lower recovery relative to September and particularly poor results for upper-book fillies suggest that last year’s experience was a less useful guide than I expected. It’s something I’ll want to test against future sales before drawing broader conclusions about how the two markets interact.

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What I’m Watching as We Head Into November

The next opportunity to apply these findings comes quickly.

Keeneland November will offer weanlings from the third crops of many of the same stallions whose second-crop yearlings just went through October. By then, breeders will have another several weeks of juvenile racing results, the yearling market’s assessment of the sires’ first two crops, and the first round of announced 2027 stud fees.

For breeders considering these stallions, the questions become increasingly specific. How much support remains behind the sire? What quality of mares did he receive in his third and fourth books? How much future supply is coming, and what evidence are his runners providing about the kind of horses he produces?

The second-crop decline at October is meaningful, especially given the volume and gross involved. But the market has also shown us that individual stallions can hold or improve their value as evidence accumulates, and that high-quality horses still attract significant competition.

As we evaluate the November weanlings, I’ll be paying particularly close attention to the stallions whose commercial markets have been reset this fall. A lower sire median can change the economics of a pinhook or a breeding decision considerably, provided the individual horse has the pedigree, physical and developmental prospects to justify the purchase.

The October results give us a fresh set of comparable transactions for making those decisions, and a useful reminder of how quickly the commercial expectations surrounding a young stallion can change.

Methodology. Thoroughbred Intelligence analyzed final hip-level Fasig-Tipton Kentucky October Yearling Sale results for 2025 and 2026, matching yearlings to the corresponding Keeneland September catalogs using normalized sire and dam records and matching foaling information. Ring clearance is horses sold through the ring divided by horses offered. Sold totals, gross, average and median include identifiable post-sales. The 2026 October results contain 41 post-sales, including seven identified by reconciling earlier exports with final records. The second-crop cohort includes 26 stallions whose first yearlings sold at Fasig-Tipton October in 2025 and whose second-crop yearlings sold in 2026. Keeneland Books 1 through 3 are defined by session pairs. Buyer names are normalized, with partnerships and named agency accounts maintained separately. RNA figures are published final buy-back bids and may include seller-side bidding. Pinhook costs reflect documented public-auction purchase prices; resale multiples are gross of commissions, keep, preparation and other expenses. Sources: Fasig-Tipton and Keeneland.