If We Were Still Shopping at Fasig-Tipton October
Twenty yearlings I would make time to see: ten for the races and ten for the 2-year-old market.
We spent our budget at Keeneland September, so we’re not buying at October. I still ran the catalog through our normal screening. I often get last-minute requests for reports and shortlists after a sale has started, so it pays to be prepared, and doing the work helps us keep building a better picture of the market.
This one turned up some good horses, and it seemed a shame to let the work sit on the shelf. If we were still shopping, these are the twenty that would top our barn list: ten to inspect as racehorses and ten as possible 2-year-old pinhooks. These are the top ten from each screen, sorted by hip number to make them easier to walk.
To be clear, this is still a catalog and pedigree exercise. I have not seen these horses, and every one has to pass the walk, the vet and the eye before a score on a spreadsheet means much.
Ten Horses I Would Buy to Race
For a horse to race, I want a mare who throws runners. I want her foals to get to the races, run often and win, and I want to see that she did the same. A blue-collar first dam suits me fine as long as there is evidence of class farther back in the family. I would rather have a dam who made 15 starts and won five than one who made three and picked up a stakes placing. Every mare on this list has at least three foals old enough to have shown us something.
There is a market reason for looking at the page this way. Anyone can find the mare with black type all over the first dam and pay the premium for it. I am more interested in the mare whose page is less fashionable but whose record says she raced, won, stayed in training and keeps producing horses that do the same. If there is real class farther back in the family, that can be a much more interesting place to spend our money.
That is what the screen is built to find. Production and durability do most of the work, while black type accounts for only 5% of the score. We are looking for repeatable evidence that may be cheaper than the obvious pedigree, then using the deeper family to make sure there is enough class for the right individual to become a very good horse.
| Hip | Day | Barn | Yearling | Our read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 385 | Mon | 21 | Colt by Jimmy Creed out of True Chick (Yes It’s True) | True Chick won five races herself, and all six of her starters have won. True Heiress won nine times, while True Sunshine and Rome’s Conquest have each won seven, and they did it for different sires. The first dam is blue collar in the best sense, with graded class farther back through Rotsaluck, Chilly Rooster, Recapturetheglory and Are You Kidding Me. |
| 676 | Tue | 10 | Colt by Into Mischief out of Brielle’s Appeal (English Channel) | Brielle’s Appeal won three races and has started three foals, all winners. Theismann has earned more than $300,000, Brie’s in Town won at 2 and is still winning at 4, and In Scope won in two starts this year. The deeper family supplies the class through Authenticity and Charlatan, while Into Mischief makes this one expensive enough that our model expects roughly $220,000. I still want to see him. |
| 753 | Tue | 5 | Filly by Cairo Prince out of Cleo’s Krewe (Flatter) | Cleo’s Krewe won six races, and three of her four starters have won. Big Hat Willie has won 10 times through age 6, while Thompson won at 2 and has now won nine times overall. There is legitimate class farther back through Kim Loves Bucky and Transduction Gold, but the reason this filly scores so well is the same reason I like the page: the family keeps producing horses that run. |
| 820 | Wed | 23 | Colt by Munnings out of Dashing Debby (Medaglia d’Oro) | Dashing Debby won a stakes at 2 and is eight-for-eight producing winners. Dawn the Destroyer earned $556,405 and placed in Grade 1 company, Bronze Star won five races, and Captivator is already Grade 2-placed at 3. This is one of the cleaner combinations in the book because the mare gives us production, precocity and class before Munnings adds anything. |
| 945 | Wed | 21 | Colt by Loggins out of Fat Kat (Weigelia) | Fat Kat won nine races and $423,318, and her two winners are Kool Kathmandu, who has won nine times from 2 through 6, and Covert Kat, a three-time winner. The second dam is even more revealing: all 11 of her foals won, including 13-time winner Smooth B, 14-time winner Disco Ebo and eight-time winner Fore Harp. This is almost a caricature of the kind of family I want to race out of, with enough stakes class mixed into all that durability to give the page upside. |
| 1008 | Wed | 4 | Colt by Violence out of Frolic’s Revenge (Vindication) | Frolic’s Revenge won eight races from 2 through 4 and has produced five winners from six starters. Drew’s Gold became a graded stakes winner and Grade 1-placed horse, American Frolic won four times, and the second and third dams come from a family loaded with repeat winners and graded horses. This colt was a $190,000 short-yearling purchase, and on race score alone he ranks first. |
| 1024 | Wed | 21 & 22 | Winner Samuel, colt by Liam’s Map out of Generosidade (URU) (Nedawi) | Generosidade is the international outlier on the list. She was a Group 1 winner in Brazil, won the San Luis Rey (G2) in California and has three winners from four starters, including Sambalover, who won at 2 and again at 5, and Penicillin Success, a four-time winner through age 7. The first dam gives us fewer runners than some of the mares above her, but the combination of her own constitution, proven runners and class throughout the family keeps this colt in the ten. |
| 1473 | Thu | 3 & 4 | Filly by Constitution out of Mylady Curlin (Curlin) | Mylady Curlin won eight races and $805,883, and all three of her runners have won. Little Miss Curlin has already won seven of 10 starts, while Hes Steelin Mylady won at 2 and is stakes-placed. The sample is still small, but the first three runners are doing exactly what we want to see from a mare who was tough and high class herself. |
| 1509 | Thu | 20 | Filly by Tapiture out of Ode to Sami (Lion Heart) | Ode to Sami won six races from 2 through 5 and is six-for-six producing winners. Lady Abril won eight times, Map to My Heart won four, and the second dam produced 13 winners, including 13-time winner Threetimesawonder. The page has enough class through Katy Kat, Wildcat Kate and others, but the broad production record is what gets this filly onto the list. |
| 1614 | Thu | 16 | Colt by Epicenter out of Purely Hot (Pure Prize) | Purely Hot won 11 races from 3 through 5, then the Whimsical (G3) in Canada at 6, and all seven of her starters have won. Eight Rings and British Isles are both Grade 1 winners, while the second and third dams add another layer of durable, productive racehorses. He scores highly because the family checks nearly every box at once: the mare raced, the foals race, the foals win, and two of them have already reached the top level. |
Ten Horses I Would Consider Pinhooking
A pinhook is a different purchase. I care about what the horse can become over the next six or seven months, how the sire’s stock has sold at the juvenile sales, how often that sire gets fast breezers, whether the family shows early ability, and how much room there is between today’s acquisition price and the market next spring.
Price matters enormously to a pinhooker because the same horse can be a good prospect and a bad trade at two different numbers, so for this list price is part of the score. We rank the resale profile against expected acquisition cost and treat a known public purchase or buyback price as a floor on that cost when it sits above our model.
| Hip | Day | Barn | Yearling | Our read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 308 | Mon | 21 & 22 | Colt by Early Voting out of Tale Untold (Tale of the Cat) | Early Voting’s seven matched OBS resales returned a 3.27x median, and 11.1% of his OBS eighth-mile breezers worked :9 4/5 or faster in our sample. Tale Untold won at 2 in England, and Heels Up won at 2 and was stakes-placed twice. The sire sample is still small, but the resale signal and the family’s early timing point in the same direction. |
| 633 | Tue | 12 | Filly by Bolt d’Oro out of Better With Age (More Than Ready) | Bolt d’Oro had the strongest resale multiple among the sires on this list with five or more matches at 4.62x, albeit from only seven matched resales, and 16.1% of his OBS breezers worked :9 4/5 or faster. Better With Age’s first runner, Fractious, won in two starts at 2 this year, while the second dam produced Newgrange. The page still has room to improve while we own the filly, and the sire already has a juvenile market waiting for her. |
| 675 | Tue | 5 | Filly by Charlatan out of Bridgette Bordeaux (Medaglia d’Oro) | Charlatan’s 21 matched resales returned a 2.22x median, and 13.0% of his OBS breezers worked :9 4/5 or faster. Bridgette Bordeaux won at 2 and has five winners from seven starters, led by Elusive d’Oro, who has now won 10 races from 2 through 9. The May 7 foaling date gives us time, so I would think Spring or June and let the filly tell us when she is ready. |
| 996 | Wed | 21 & 22 | Filly by Nyquist out of Free Cover (Congrats) | Our model expects roughly $145,000, but Free Cover won at 2 and both of her Nyquist winners have already won at 2, including Gaudreau, who finished second in the Champagne (G1). The exact mating is already working, the sire has a deep juvenile market, and the price-adjusted score still puts the filly third overall. |
| 1005 | Wed | 21 & 22 | Filly by Practical Joke out of Friendship Road (Quality Road) | Friendship Road has no produce record yet, so this is the cleanest sire-led trade on the list. Practical Joke’s 16 matched OBS resales returned a 2.65x median, and 13.8% of 80 breezers worked :9 4/5 or faster, while the family behind the mare includes Olympiad, Preservationist and Pleasant Passage. A February 21 foaling date gives the filly every chance to be ready early if the physical agrees. |
| 1068 | Wed | 14 | Filly by Life Is Good out of Granny Mc’s Kitten (Kitten’s Joy) | Granny Mc’s Kitten won four races from 2 through 4, including the P. G. Johnson at 2, and four of her five starters have won. Sister Lou Ann won at 2 and went on to earn nearly $600,000, while Hop Kat won nine times from 2 through 7; the second dam also produced Grade 1 winner Kitten’s Dumplings and Grade 3 winner Granny’s Kitten. Our model expects this filly to cost about $188,000, so there is less room for error than with some horses on the list. The family gives us the early timing and durability we want, but at that price I would need the physical to make a strong case for the trade. |
| 1285 | Thu | 19 | Filly by Maximus Mischief out of Line of Vision (Court Vision) | Line of Vision won three restricted stakes at 2 and 3, and her current 2-year-old Mad Mo is already a winner. Maximus Mischief has produced enough fast, commercial juveniles to give the sire side credibility without pushing the acquisition cost into the most expensive tier. The screen likes the combination because the family supplies precocity while the sire and price leave room for a spring buyer to see something more. |
| 1418 | Thu | 8 | Filly by Yaupon out of Miss Sammy (Tale of Ekati) | Yaupon has the strongest breeze signal in our dataset: 18 of 78 OBS eighth-mile breezers worked :9 4/5 or faster, a 23.1% rate against 8.2% for the full sample, and his 23 matched resales returned a 2.11x median. Miss Sammy has four winners from five starters and Good Directions won at 2. Even after pricing in what the yearling market already knows about Yaupon, this filly still ranks first on the pinhook screen. |
| 1489 | Thu | 1 & 2 | Filly by Complexity out of Nisharora (IRE) (Excellent Art) | Nisharora won both of her starts in France at 2 and was stakes-placed in Italy that year, while her produce includes Poppy Flower, a Grade 3 winner who also won at 2, and Practical Rose, a winner in her only start at 2 this year. Complexity already has a strong juvenile identity, and our model expects this filly around $26,000. That price is the attraction: the page gives us genuine 2-year-old evidence on both sides, with far less capital at risk than most of the obvious commercial pinhooks. |
| 1497 | Thu | 11 | Filly by Yaupon out of Noon Time Shower (Noonmark) | The second Yaupon belongs here on the same terms as the first. Noon Time Shower was stakes-placed, Womanonthewarpath won at 2 and earned black type, and the second dam was a stakes winner who produced six winners from seven starters. The May 12 foaling date points toward a later juvenile sale, and the price adjustment still leaves enough room for her to rank eighth. |
What the Runner Screen Is Actually Buying
The screen is really looking for a mismatch between what the market tends to reward and what I want to own. Black type is visible, easy to understand and already priced into the horse. Production is messier. You have to go foal by foal and ask who started, who won, how long they stayed around and whether the pattern held across different sires.
Our analysis of last year’s October sale shows where the market puts its money. Once sire quality was held constant, yearlings out of mares that had already produced a stakes winner carried a 44% premium, while the mare’s own stakes win added almost no measurable premium. Buyers pay heavily for production once it reaches the catalog as black type. A mare whose foals keep starting and winning without reaching black type gets no such headline.
What the Pinhook Screen Is Actually Buying
For the pinhook list we start with a different question: what information is likely to matter to the buyer standing at the 2-year-old sale next spring? We matched 2025 Keeneland September and Fasig-Tipton October yearlings to the same horses at OBS March, Spring and June this year. Of the 1,228 that appeared in an OBS catalog, 780 sold, at a median 2.05 times their yearling price before a year of board, breaking, training and sale costs.
We also studied 4,884 eighth-mile works at OBS March, Spring and June from 2024 through 2026, measuring each horse against the others that worked the same morning. Average times moved by as much as two-fifths of a second from one morning to another, so the morning context matters. The sire was the strongest catalog-page signal we found, although it explained only 8% of the variation in breeze time.
| Sire | Resold | Median multiple | Breezers | :9 4/5 or faster |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bolt d’Oro | 7 | 4.62x | 56 | 16.1% |
| Charlatan | 21 | 2.22x | 54 | 13.0% |
| Complexity | 4 | n/a | 56 | 14.3% |
| Early Voting | 7 | 3.27x | 18 | 11.1% |
| Life Is Good | 9 | 2.00x | 18 | 33.3% |
| Maximus Mischief | 5 | 2.00x | 53 | 13.2% |
| Nyquist | 3 | n/a | 46 | 13.0% |
| Practical Joke | 16 | 2.65x | 80 | 13.8% |
| Yaupon | 23 | 2.11x | 78 | 23.1% |
| All horses | 780 | 2.05x | 4,884 | 8.2% |
Resales: 2025 Keeneland September and Fasig-Tipton October yearlings sold in the ring or as post-sales, matched by dam, foal year and sire to the same horse sold at OBS March, Spring or June 2026; gross prices, before a year of board, breaking, training and sale costs, for horses that resold. Medians are not shown for fewer than five resales. Breeze figures: OBS March, Spring and June 2024 to 2026, eighth-mile works only, one work per horse.
The yearling market carried more information than the page. Among 2,125 horses we could match back to Keeneland September or Fasig-Tipton October, 30.8% of the yearlings that brought $200,000 or more later worked an eighth in :9 4/5 or faster, compared with 3.6% of those bought for less than $25,000. Some of that gap is almost certainly what experienced buyers saw in the horse standing in front of them, which is another reason the screen should narrow a barn list rather than pretend to replace one.
Where the Work Stops
The screen can tell us where to start and make the barn list much shorter. From there the physical takes over. Every horse here still has to show enough athleticism, balance, bone and movement to justify the page, and the pinhooks also need a realistic buy number after we decide which juvenile sale fits the horse.
Methodology. Fasig-Tipton Kentucky October 2026 catalog, export and updates through October 15. Racing: the top ten by our race score among yearlings whose dams have at least three foals aged 3 or older. The score weights the dam’s own race record (20%), her produce (35%), the sire’s runner rate, winner rate and earnings per starter (25%), the second dam’s produce (15%) and black type (5%).
Pinhooks: the top ten by our price-adjusted score, which weighs the sire’s juvenile resale record, OBS breeze data, family precocity, foaling date and current sibling form against expected cost, using any public purchase or buyback price as a floor. Breezes are OBS eighth-mile works from 2024 through 2026, one per horse, measured against the horses that worked the same morning. The screen also uses licensed third-party data not reproduced here. Horse facts come from the catalog, official updates and public sale records. Sources: Fasig-Tipton, Keeneland and OBS.