The Freshman Sire Market Is Starting to Separate

With six sessions complete, we finally have enough first-crop yearlings through the ring to start separating a few real trends from the occasional expensive horse.

The headline numbers give us one version of the market. Cody's Wish has generated $11.6 million in through-ring gross, comfortably the most among the group we are following. His $341,176 average is also narrowly the highest. Up to the Mark sits just behind him at $335,714, while Forte, Gunite and Elite Power have each generated more than $7.8 million from much larger groups.

Those numbers tell only part of the story. Clearance, median and catalog position change the picture, and going back to Keeneland November 2025 shows which stallions buyers have re-priced most aggressively since their first weanlings appeared.

We also matched individual November purchases that returned to Keeneland September. That gives us an early look at actual pinhook returns, with an important assumption about ownership and the usual caveat on expenses explained at the end.

For the September tables, offered excludes outs. Sold means sold through the ring, and RNA rate measures the initial result at the hammer. Horses that subsequently sold privately still count as RNAs for this purpose. We think that gives the cleanest read on what buyers and sellers were willing to do while the horse was standing in the ring.

Figure 1 · Ten months

Where the benchmark moved between the weanling and yearling markets

Show the data

Sire	November median	September median
Cody's Wish	$200K	$300K
Up to the Mark	$92.5K	$250K
Gunite	$155K	$200K
Taiba	$125K	$225K
Forte	$200K	$200K
Elite Power	$160K	$190K
Arabian Lion	$70K	$160K
Mage	$110K	$140K
Arcangelo	$85K	$250K

The Market Has Already Changed Its Mind on a Few of Them

Keeneland November gives us a useful starting point because these were the same stallions and the same foal crop before their first yearlings reached the market.

The populations are different, so this is not an appreciation calculation. The comparison shows where the commercial benchmark has moved.

Offered excludes outs. Sold means sold through the ring. RNA rate is the initial result at the hammer, so horses subsequently reported sold privately still count as RNAs.

Cody's Wish was already expensive last November. Gunite was already liquid. Forte was already a $200,000-median horse.

The larger changes belong to Up to the Mark, Taiba and Arabian Lion. Each has established a materially higher yearling price point, although the pattern behind those gains differs.

Up to the Mark has moved higher with very little change in liquidity. Taiba has moved higher while buyers have become more selective. Arabian Lion started from the lowest November base of the three and has improved sharply in both price and clearance.

Arcangelo's numbers also jump off the page, although six September ring sales are still too few to tell us where his yearling market has settled.

Figure 2 · Price against friction

The same median can sit on very different markets

Show the data

Sire	September median	Initial RNA rate
Cody's Wish	$300K	37.0%
Up to the Mark	$250K	16.0%
Gunite	$200K	25.5%
Taiba	$225K	30.0%
Forte	$200K	26.0%
Elite Power	$190K	35.3%
Arabian Lion	$160K	12.5%
Mage	$140K	53.8%
Arcangelo	$250K	40.0%

Up to the Mark Has Moved Up Without Losing the Market

Up to the Mark may have the most complete commercial profile in the class so far.

The $1.65 million Book 2 colt obviously helps the average, which is why the rest of the table matters. Thirteen of 15 offered in Book 3 sold through the ring, and that group produced a $220,000 median.

Keeneland November had given us only seven Up to the Marks. Six sold for a $105,333 average and $92,500 median. Ten months later, the September median stands at $250,000 across 21 sales, while the initial RNA rate has barely changed.

That combination gives the result more weight. Buyers are paying materially more without becoming much harder to satisfy.

The female side adds another interesting wrinkle. All 12 fillies offered through Book 3 have found reported buyers, with a current median of $255,000. The $1.65 million colt attracts the attention, while the broader draft has done plenty of work underneath him.

Cody's Wish Has Generated the Most Money

Cody's Wish came into September with much higher expectations.

His $11.6 million gross leads this group by a wide margin, and a $300,000 median from 34 through-ring sales is a serious number.

The liquidity tells another part of the story. His initial RNA rate reached 41 percent in Book 2 and 38 percent in Book 3. That is quite a change from November, when 10 of 11 Cody's Wish weanlings sold through the ring and the median was already $200,000.

Buyers have continued to pay more for the successful horses. Seller expectations appear to have moved at least as quickly.

Cody's Wish therefore occupies an interesting position halfway through the sale. He has the largest commercial footprint of the freshman sires we are following and one of the strongest medians. He also has considerably more friction through the rest of the draft than the top-line numbers suggest.

Gunite Has Handled Volume Well

Forty-seven Gunites have already gone through the ring, which gives us one of the better samples in the class.

His RNA rate was essentially identical in Books 2 and 3, even as the median stepped down in a logical way with catalog placement. He has also produced a $725,000 Book 2 yearling and a $700,000 Book 3 yearling, so there is a real upper end along with the depth.

Gunite's November market was already well established. Twenty-nine of 33 weanlings sold through the ring at a $155,000 median and only a 12 percent RNA rate.

September has lifted that median to $200,000. The RNA rate has risen to 25.5 percent, but the sample is large enough and the clearance steady enough to suggest buyers have a fairly settled view of what they want from him.

Some freshman sires are being discovered during this sale. Gunite was already well discovered last fall.

Taiba Has Been Re-Rated

Taiba's September median has reached $225,000, up from $125,000 at Keeneland November.

Book 2 brought some resistance, with four of 10 failing to sell initially. Book 3 gave him nearly twice as many horses and a better clearance rate, with 14 of 19 selling through the ring.

The November comparison strengthens the case. Twenty-one of 25 weanlings sold at a $125,000 median, while the current September median is $225,000 across 21 ring sales.

That represents a substantial change in the commercial benchmark.

Gunite and Taiba together have now had 77 yearlings offered through Book 3. The market is giving Gun Runner's first sons at stud a meaningful commercial test, and both have attracted substantial support. Gunite has shown the steadier profile across a larger sample, while Taiba has made the larger move from where buyers valued his weanlings.

Arabian Lion Is Easy to Miss on an Average Leaderboard

Arabian Lion has only 16 yearlings offered through Book 3, so the sample deserves some restraint. The direction of the numbers is still difficult to ignore.

Fourteen of 16 offered have sold through the ring.

Last November, 27 Arabian Lion weanlings were offered and 18 sold. The median was $70,000 and the initial RNA rate 33 percent.

His September median is now $160,000 and the RNA rate has fallen to 12.5 percent, a substantial change in both price and liquidity from the market buyers saw in November.

The average still places him below several of the more fashionable freshmen, which is part of what makes him interesting. His improvement is showing up in the middle of the group and in the number of horses getting sold.

Forte May Be the Most Stable Market in the Group

Fifty Fortes have been offered through Book 3, giving us one of the largest samples in the class.

His RNA rate has held around 28 percent in both Books 2 and 3, and all four Book 1 offerings sold.

The November comparison is unusual. Forte's weanling median was $200,000, exactly where his September median still sits. Meanwhile, the initial RNA rate has improved from 36 percent in November to 26 percent in September, and the average has increased from $200,000 to $232,838.

Forte has held his price while becoming easier to transact. For breeders, that kind of stability has considerable value even if it produces fewer dramatic headlines.

Elite Power Has a Valuable Upper End and More Resistance Below It

Elite Power's best yearlings have been well received.

His overall median has moved from $160,000 as a weanling sire to $190,000 at September, and the average has risen from $181,071 to $237,576.

Clearance has moved in the other direction. The initial RNA rate increased from 22 percent in November to 35 percent at September, with Book 2 particularly selective as 10 of 23 failed to sell initially.

The upper end is clearly there. Books 4 and 5 should tell us much more about the size of the commercial base underneath it.

Mage Has a Liquidity Problem

Mage's successful yearlings are bringing more money than his weanlings did. Getting to a successful transaction has become considerably harder.

His November median was $110,000 and the initial RNA rate 23.8 percent. The September median has risen to $140,000, while 14 of 26 offerings have failed to sell at the hammer.

Five of those RNAs have subsequently been reported sold privately, so buyers have found some of the horses afterward. The initial gap between buyers and sellers remains unusually large.

The pinhook results point in the same direction.

Arcangelo's Price Move Needs a Bigger Sample

Arcangelo's weanlings were extremely liquid last November. Twenty of 21 sold through the ring, although the median was only $85,000.

The September median has reached $250,000, although only six horses have sold through the ring. Two additional RNAs have subsequently sold privately, which improves the current reported clearance considerably.

The price movement is worth following, but six ring sales are still too few to tell us where Arcangelo's yearling market has really settled.

The Pinhook Returns Add Another Layer

We matched the November and September records by sire, dam, sex and date of birth. Among the first-crop sires we are following, 41 November purchases were re-offered through Book 3 at Keeneland September.

Twenty-five sold through the ring.

Gunite produced some particularly strong individual trades. Five of nine re-offered horses sold through the ring, and all five brought more than their November purchase price. The median gross price multiple among those successful resales was 2.10x, including horses that went from $170,000 to $700,000 and from $180,000 to $725,000.

Four of the six Taiba pinhooks sold through the ring, with a median gross multiple of 1.91x. One went from $110,000 in November to $625,000 in September, while another moved from $125,000 to $350,000. The group also included much more modest results, including one horse that sold below its November purchase price.

Forte provides useful context. Five of eight re-offered horses sold, and the median gross multiple on those five was only 1.17x. His sire-level yearling market has been stable, but that stability has not translated into large gross margins for this small group of pinhookers.

Mage was the most difficult. Four November purchases came back through Book 3 and all four failed to sell in the ring. Three later sold privately, at $120,000, $95,000 and $100,000. Their November purchase prices had been $155,000, $110,000 and $55,000 respectively.

The 25 successful ring resales had cost a combined $3.84 million in November and brought $7.61 million at September, almost exactly twice their original purchase price before expenses.

The picture changes considerably once the RNAs are included. All 41 pinhooks had cost a combined $6.85 million in November. The 25 that sold through the ring generated $7.61 million, while 16 failed to sell initially. Three of those subsequently changed hands privately for another $315,000.

That is much closer to the economics pinhookers actually face. The successful horses can produce very large gross multiples, while the horses that fail to sell absorb capital and carrying costs at the same time. None of these figures include commissions, insurance, board, veterinary expense, sales preparation or financing.

The Smaller Samples Are Still Worth Watching

Several first-crop sires simply have not had enough horses through the first three books to say much about them yet.

Annapolis is the obvious one to keep an eye on. Four horses tell us very little about where his eventual market settles, although four offered and four sold at a $255,000 median is a useful start.

Books 4 and 5 should give many of these stallions much larger populations and a very different test.

Where the Freshman Market Stands at the Midpoint

If we looked only at average, Cody's Wish and Up to the Mark would sit together at the top of this group. The underlying markets look quite different.

Cody's Wish has attracted the most money and carries the highest median among the large samples. His yearlings are also encountering considerably more resistance than his weanlings did. Up to the Mark has combined high prices with a 16 percent initial RNA rate, almost unchanged from November despite a very large move in the median.

Gunite has handled volume well, and the right horses have worked particularly well for pinhookers. Taiba has established a much higher price point than he had as a weanling and improved his clearance as the sale moved into Book 3. Together, they make the early commercial reception of Gun Runner's sons one of the more interesting stories in the class.

Arabian Lion deserves more attention than his average is likely to generate. His median has more than doubled from the November weanling market while his RNA rate has fallen from 33 percent to 12.5 percent. Forte has been much steadier, holding a $200,000 median while improving clearance. Elite Power has produced a valuable upper end with more resistance through the broader group.

Mage is giving us the clearest warning sign so far. His successful yearlings have appreciated from the weanling market, while the initial RNA rate has more than doubled to 54 percent and all four matched pinhooks initially failed to sell.

We are still only halfway through the sale by session count. The first three books have told us quite a bit about which freshman sires can produce a yearling that attracts serious money. The back half should tell us much more about which ones have a floor.

Methodology: Thoroughbred Intelligence analyzed Keeneland November 2025 weanling results and Keeneland September 2026 Books 1 through 3 at the hip level. Offered figures exclude outs. Sold, average, median, gross and top price use through-ring transactions. Initial RNA rates include horses subsequently reported sold privately so that clearance reflects the result when the horse passed through the ring. November-to-September comparisons involve different populations unless specifically identified as pinhooks.

*For purposes of the pinhook analysis, we matched horses by sire, dam, sex and date of birth and assume a matched November purchase subsequently offered at September represents a pinhook. This does not establish continuous beneficial ownership between sales.

**Pinhook price multiples compare November purchase price with September sale price for horses sold through the ring and represent gross auction-price changes only. They do not account for commissions, insurance, board, veterinary costs, sales preparation, financing or other carrying expenses.