The October Option: How Kentucky’s Fall Yearling Sales Fit Together

I’ve thought for a long time that the Thoroughbred industry gets plenty of coverage, but relatively little independent analysis. It’s a small business with overlapping commercial relationships, and conflicts of interest are part of that reality. Coming from a professional background where understanding markets, incentives and competitive dynamics has always been important, I’ve often found myself wanting more.

This fall, while buying at Keeneland September and writing regularly for Thoroughbred Intelligence, I found myself paying closer attention to the broader yearling market, from Fasig-Tipton Saratoga through Keeneland September and Fasig-Tipton Kentucky October. I became curious about how the sales relate to one another, the decisions breeders and consignors make about where to sell, and what those choices tell us about the market.

Some things you come to understand simply by spending time around the business. Others you learn from people who have been doing it for decades. And then there are things you can only discover by getting into the data.

We matched 4,642 entries from Keeneland September against 1,613 from Fasig-Tipton October, examining book placements, withdrawals, RNAs, prices, clearance and sire results.

There were 522 yearlings cataloged at both sales. They represented nearly a third of October’s entries and accounted for almost half its gross.

Following those horses revealed a good deal about how Kentucky’s fall yearling market works.

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1. October serves two distinct populations of horses

We tend to discuss Keeneland September as one sale, although the differences between its books are substantial.

Book 1 produced a $550,000 median this year. Book 2 came in at $287,500 and Book 3 at $160,000. Book 4 fell to $80,000, Book 5A to $40,000, and Book 5B to $15,000.

Keeneland’s first three books concentrate much of the premium market, with Books 1 and 2 occupying its highest end. The later books serve a broader commercial population, where trainers, pinhookers, regional racing operations and other buyers can find plenty of prospects at more accessible prices.

Fasig-Tipton October competes directly for much of that broader business, but it also attracts valuable horses originally selected for Keeneland’s earlier books.

The distinction becomes clear when we separate October’s results into horses that had appeared in the September catalog and those that hadn’t.

The 335 horses previously cataloged at Keeneland generated 48% of October’s gross. Their $60,000 median was more than twice that of the other 761 horses.

This helps explain why comparing the two sales by their overall averages can be misleading.

Keeneland’s final six September sessions averaged $61,894, almost identical to October’s $60,146. October also generated more gross than Keeneland’s final four sessions, $65.9 million against $44.5 million.

But October’s results include $31.7 million from horses originally cataloged at Keeneland. Remove those horses, and the remaining 761 sales generated $34.3 million, with a $45,008 average and a $25,000 median.

The sales overlap substantially in the broader commercial market, but the populations of horses aren’t the same.

There’s also an important distinction in how the catalogs are organized. Keeneland sorts horses into books based on commercial considerations, while Fasig-Tipton October sells alphabetically by dam across four sessions. Expensive horses can appear throughout October, alongside horses selling for a fraction of their price.

For buyers with a $25,000 or $40,000 budget, both sales offer considerable opportunities. Keeneland sold 1,077 yearlings for less than $50,000 this year, compared with 686 at October. Keeneland offered more completed transactions at those prices, while October concentrated a much higher proportion of its business in that range.

Figure 1 · Where each sale’s yearlings sold

Most October yearlings sold for less than $50,000. Most Keeneland yearlings sold for more.

Show the data

Price	Keeneland sold	Keeneland share	FT October sold	FT October share
Under $25,000	618	20.4%	448	40.9%
$25,000 to $49,999	459	15.1%	238	21.7%
$50,000 to $99,999	516	17.0%	203	18.5%
$100,000 to $199,999	543	17.9%	143	13.0%
$200,000 to $499,999	627	20.7%	58	5.3%
$500,000 and up	271	8.9%	6	0.5%
All sold	3,034	100.0%	1,096	100.0%

At the upper end, October draws heavily from Keeneland’s catalog. Of the 64 yearlings that sold at Fasig-Tipton for $200,000 or more, 42 had originally appeared at September. At $300,000 and above, it was 21 of 29.

October’s $800,000 co-topper, the Into Mischief colt out of Brielle’s Appeal, was originally Keeneland September Hip 138 in Book 1. He was withdrawn and subsequently sold at Fasig-Tipton.

That raises a question about the relationship between the sales. Why do so many horses originally selected for Keeneland end up at October, and why does the pattern differ so dramatically by September book?

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2. Book placement and the October option influence seller decisions

Of the 522 horses appearing in both catalogs, 423 had been withdrawn from Keeneland and 92 were recorded as RNAs. Another seven carried September sale records.

When we separated the horses by their original Keeneland placement, the results were striking.

Every September RNA that subsequently appeared at Fasig-Tipton came from Books 1 through 3. Every horse originally cataloged in Books 4 through 5B that later appeared at October had been withdrawn from Keeneland.

The later books had plenty of RNAs of their own. Books 4 through 5B recorded 299, with a median unsuccessful bid of $37,000. None appeared in the October catalog. By comparison, the median RNA bid in Books 1 through 3 was $150,000.

Figure 2 · Which Keeneland horses came to October

Withdrawals came from every book. RNAs came only from Books 1 to 3.

Show the data

Keeneland book	Cataloged	Withdrawn	Withdrawn, at October	Share	RNA	RNA, at October	Share
Book 1	372	80	26	32.5%	64	24	37.5%
Book 2	756	143	67	46.9%	145	49	33.8%
Book 3	839	129	47	36.4%	140	19	13.6%
Book 4	840	105	30	28.6%	126	0	0.0%
Book 5A	858	139	41	29.5%	90	0	0.0%
Book 5B	977	364	212	58.2%	83	0	0.0%

I’ve since learned from people familiar with the consignment process that there’s a commercial explanation for at least part of this pattern.

Fasig-Tipton’s regular October entry deadline was July 15, well before Keeneland September. Its published conditions allow late entries to be considered, however, and people in the sales business tell me that Fasig-Tipton keeps a route into October available for suitable RNAs and withdrawals from Keeneland’s first three books.

Consignors can therefore approach September knowing they may have another opportunity if a horse fails to meet its reserve.

Consider a breeder with a Book 2 yearling who believes the horse is worth $300,000. If bidding stops at $250,000, accepting the offer is one possibility. Retaining the horse and trying again at October is another.

That second opportunity may influence how firmly the seller holds a reserve. There are additional expenses, and the later sale could produce a lower price, but having an alternative changes the calculation.

We can’t observe reserves in the auction records, so there’s no way to establish how often this happens. Still, the availability of October is worth considering when interpreting early-book RNA rates and the prices sellers are willing to accept.

For the later books, the decision often comes earlier.

One thing I’ve learned from conversations with people in the business is just how consequential book placement can be. A breeder who hoped for Book 3 or 4 and receives a late September placement may prefer to scratch and send the horse to October.

The timing allows for that decision. Keeneland released preliminary placements on July 6 this year, nine days before Fasig-Tipton’s regular October entry deadline. Sellers could evaluate their September placement and make arrangements before either sale began.

Book 5B offers the clearest example of how extensively that option was used.

Of the 364 horses withdrawn from Keeneland’s final book, 212 subsequently appeared at Fasig-Tipton October. That’s 58% of all Book 5B withdrawals.

Those 212 horses produced 144 October sales worth $6.4 million, with a $30,000 median. Horses that actually sold in Keeneland Book 5B had a $15,000 median.

The horses that moved were a selected group, and we don’t know what they would have brought had they remained at Keeneland. Physical readiness, veterinary considerations and other circumstances may explain some withdrawals. Still, the number of horses moving from the final September book to October suggests that sellers see meaningful value in choosing between the two venues.

Pinhookers have a lot riding on getting that decision right. They’ve already invested in acquiring and raising the horse, often with a specific resale market in mind. A yearling purchased with the expectation of selling in an earlier September book can become a very different commercial proposition if assigned to the final sessions.

October offers another opportunity, but the decision still comes down to the likely selling price, the available buyers and how much margin remains after expenses. Breeders selling homebreds face similar placement considerations, even if their cost basis and objectives differ.

The 299 late-book RNAs that never appeared at October are worth a closer look.

Their $37,000 median unsuccessful bid was substantially below the $150,000 median for RNAs in the first three books. At those price levels, another round of shipping, preparation and selling expenses may consume a meaningful portion of the potential proceeds.

Timing also matters. The later September sessions leave relatively little time to arrange another auction appearance, and late-entry acceptance is discretionary.

Some of those horses may have sold privately or found other outlets. Their absence from October doesn’t establish why their owners chose those alternatives, or whether they had considered October in the first place.

What we can measure is the business October generated from horses that hadn’t sold at Keeneland.

Fasig-Tipton sold 334 horses that had been recorded as withdrawn or unsold at September, producing $31.2 million in additional reported transactions.

The September RNAs provide the most direct comparison because we can observe the same horses encountering the market twice.

Of the 92 September RNAs entered at October, 57 eventually sold. Forty-four of those 57 brought less than their previous reported RNA bid. The median October sale price was 62.5% of the earlier bid.

An RNA bid isn’t necessarily an independent buyer’s offer, and it tells us nothing about the seller’s actual reserve or costs. But the comparison illustrates the trade-off involved in exercising that second opportunity. Most of these horses ultimately found buyers at prices below their earlier reported bids.

For an early-book seller, October may offer another chance to achieve a desired price. For a late-book seller, October may be an alternative to an unfavorable September placement.

Those are different commercial decisions, and the catalog matches suggest both play a substantial role in how the two sales fit together.

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3. Sire prices and clearance tell different parts of the same story

The different populations at Keeneland and Fasig-Tipton also help explain some apparent inconsistencies in sire results.

Take Practical Joke. His Keeneland September yearlings had a $130,000 median, compared with $70,000 at October.

That’s a substantial difference until we restrict the Keeneland comparison to its final six sessions. His median there was also $70,000.

Omaha Beach followed the same pattern. His overall Keeneland median was $100,000, compared with $55,000 at October. His median in September’s final six sessions was exactly $55,000.

Maclean’s Music and Olympiad also recorded identical medians at October and in those later September sessions.

These comparisons involve different individual horses, and pedigree, physical quality and veterinary findings all influence their prices. But they illustrate why whole-sale sire medians can be misleading. The commercial level of the horses being compared makes an enormous difference.

There’s another aspect of sire performance worth examining: the relationship between price and clearance.

Vekoma had a $100,000 median at October, more than six times his advertised $15,000 stud fee in 2024, the breeding season that produced these yearlings. But only 18 of his 27 offered horses sold, a clearance rate of 66.7%.

Elite Power recorded an $87,500 median against a $50,000 advertised fee, with eight of 13 offered yearlings sold.

Jack Christopher presents a very different picture. His October median was $20,000 against a $40,000 fee, but 17 of 18 offered yearlings sold. Olympiad cleared 30 of 33 at a $25,000 median, below his $35,000 advertised fee.

I suspect seller expectations explain some of these differences.

A breeder with a Vekoma yearling may feel justified in holding out for a strong price given the stallion’s commercial appeal. If bidding falls short, retaining the horse may be preferable to accepting a disappointing offer.

A breeder selling a yearling by a sire whose market has softened faces a different calculation. The stud fee has already been incurred, and the question becomes whether holding the horse offers a reasonable prospect of recovering more money after additional expenses.

By October, with the major yearling sales winding down, those decisions can become especially consequential.

We can’t see reserves, and the relationship isn’t universal. Mage, for example, cleared 14 of 16 October yearlings at a $62,500 median, comfortably above his advertised $25,000 fee. Strong prices and high clearance can coexist.

But consider what the Vekoma and Jack Christopher results actually tell us.

Vekoma’s $100,000 median describes the 18 horses that sold. Nine others were offered and went unsold. Jack Christopher’s $20,000 median describes nearly his entire offered group, but at prices that were likely disappointing for many breeders.

Neither result establishes whether breeders made money. Stud fees are only one part of the cost of producing a yearling, and negotiated fees may differ from advertised rates.

For someone considering a mating or valuing a yearling, I’d want to know what comparable horses are actually bringing and how consistently they’re finding buyers.

The results also need to be viewed within the appropriate commercial market. Comparing a stallion’s October median with September prices heavily influenced by early-book horses may tell us very little about what a comparable yearling is worth.

I would rather work from similar horses at similar commercial levels, separated by sex where possible, and consider the unsold inventory alongside the completed transactions.

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Where I’d take this next

I’d like to follow these movements over several years, starting with the relationship between September book placement and the decision to sell at October. The 299 late-book RNAs that never appeared at Fasig-Tipton are also worth tracing. Some may have sold privately or found other outlets, and their eventual outcomes would add another dimension to the analysis.

For now, the 522 horses appearing in both catalogs give us a useful picture of how sellers navigate the two sales. The choices they make about placement, timing and reserves can be just as consequential as the bidding that follows.

Methodology. Thoroughbred Intelligence matched the 2026 Keeneland September and Fasig-Tipton Kentucky October catalogs using sire, dam, sex and foaling date, then examined sale status, book placement, reported prices and sire performance. The dataset contains 4,642 Keeneland records and 1,613 Fasig-Tipton records. Sold counts, gross and medians include identified post/private transactions. Clearance is calculated as reported sales divided by horses offered, excluding withdrawals. The Fasig-Tipton export contains two fewer entries than the published catalog total of 1,615. Catalog matches establish movement between sales and recorded transaction outcomes. The records do not reveal individual withdrawal motives, seller reserves, negotiated stud fees or the financial results of specific consignments. Conversations with industry participants provide context for interpreting seller decisions. Clearance in this post counts post-sales as sales, which makes it the published sale rate; our sale recaps report ring clearance, which counts only horses sold in the ring. Keeneland books follow the sale’s session pairs, from Book 1 (sessions 1 and 2) to Book 5B (sessions 11 and 12), so sessions 7 to 12 are Books 4, 5A and 5B. Stud fees are the advertised 2024 fees in our Kentucky stud fee history. Sources: Keeneland and Fasig-Tipton.

Disclosure: I buy, breed and sell Thoroughbreds, including at Keeneland and Fasig-Tipton. This analysis uses public auction records and a reproducible catalog-matching methodology.