How to Read Fasig-Tipton October

Fasig-Tipton October is an easy sale to misread if you bring the Keeneland September playbook with you.

Keeneland spends almost two weeks sorting horses into books. Buyers arrive with a clear idea of where the sale company thinks a horse belongs before they ever see it. October works differently. The catalog runs alphabetically by dam name across four days, and the pedigree and commercial indicators are spread evenly from Monday through Thursday.

Fasig-Tipton's export lists 1,613 yearlings. A third of those horses were cataloged at Keeneland September three weeks earlier. One in five has already changed hands in a public sale. First- and second-crop sires account for 44.9% of the book. More than half have appeared in at least one prior public catalog somewhere in the sales cycle.

That means prior prices, September RNA amounts, public purchase history, changing sire sentiment and, in some cases, several earlier looks at the same horse.

I wanted to understand how all of that fits together, and which pieces of it October buyers have paid for.

The catalog in one look

The 2026 catalog is almost exactly the same size as last year's. Pedigree depth is similar too. This year, 27.2% of pages have a stakes winner or stakes producer in the first dam, against 26.7% last year. There are exactly 262 first foals in both books. The percentage of yearlings out of stakes-winning mares moved from 13.0% to 14.2%.

The composition around those pedigrees changed more.

The catalog also looks deeper at the top. There are 171 horses here that had been entered in Keeneland Books 1 or 2, compared with 144 last year, and the Keeneland RNAs arrive carrying higher bids than last year's group.

There is no Book 1 here

The four October sessions are administrative divisions. The catalog starts this year in the Qs, works through the alphabet, wraps around, and finishes back in the Ps.

Warm first-dam pages run 28%, 28%, 28% and 25% across the four days. Keeneland RNAs are split 26, 26, 19 and 21. Keeneland withdrawals are 105, 110, 100 and 108.

Last year's prices tell the same story. Session medians were $30,000, $32,000, $30,000 and $35,000. From 2019 through 2025, the final session cleared at a higher rate than the first session every year. In six of those seven renewals, the opening session had the lowest clearance of the week.

I would shop this sale accordingly. At Keeneland, book placement carries information. At October, the day tells you much less. Thursday has consistently produced as much opportunity as Monday, and Monday's RNAs have another three days to find a home.

October functions as Keeneland's second market

There are 522 horses in this catalog that were also cataloged at Keeneland September, 32.4% of the entire book.

Book 5B alone contributes 212 horses, 58% of all Book 5B withdrawals.

The Books 1 through 3 group is different. Ninety-two of those horses went through the Keeneland ring and came home unsold, so the bid they failed to clear is on the public record.

Their median reported RNA amount was $185,000, against $125,000 for last year's group. Twenty came home at $300,000 or more.

The Keeneland-route horses made up 34.3% of last year's October catalog and generated 51.5% of the gross. Fifty-six of the 90 yearlings that brought at least $200,000 had first been cataloged at Keeneland. The $900,000 sale topper was a Keeneland Book 1 withdrawal.

That group was selected before it ever reached October. A horse accepted into Keeneland Book 1 or 2 starts from a different place than the average October yearling, and that history stays part of his commercial profile when he turns up here.

Last year's Keeneland RNAs sold for a median 88% of the bid

The September ring has already put a public bid on these 92 horses.

Last year, 73 Keeneland RNAs went on to sell at October. Their October prices were a median 88% of their September RNA amount. Only 26 of the 73 sold for at least that September figure.

A horse that came home at $200,000 three weeks ago therefore arrives with something concrete in his history. The seller has since carried him another few weeks, gone through another round of prep and vetting, and brought him into a different market.

I would have all 92 September RNA amounts in my notes before I started inspecting.

327 yearlings arrive with a public purchase price

I found 327 horses in the catalog with a completed public purchase since birth. Most follow the conventional pinhook path. There are 311 that were bought as weanlings last fall or short yearlings over the winter and are now being offered as yearlings.

Those 311 represent $24,977,200 in recorded public purchase prices, with a median of $40,000. Last year's group represented $14,640,000. The count is up 24.9%. The money committed is up 70.6%.

Most were bought at a handful of sales.

Keeneland November and January alone account for 220 of the 311 conventional pinhooks.

The same horse can sell twice in one yearling season

The other 16 horses with a completed public purchase are different. Their most recent purchase came as a yearling, earlier in this same selling season, and they are now in the October catalog.

A conventional pinhook gives the buyer months between transactions. The horse is bought as a weanling or short yearling, then grows, develops and comes back to market as a yearling. A yearling resale compresses that into weeks. The horse is essentially the same age and at roughly the same stage of development. The venue, buyer pool and ownership have changed much more than the horse.

The timing of each purchase tells you how much to read into it.

Seven were bought at Fasig-Tipton July on July 14, the day before October entries closed. Two more sold at the New York-bred sale in mid-August. Fasig-Tipton's deadline to withdraw without appearing in the printed catalog was September 4, so all nine had weeks in which they could have been pulled from the book, and none were. Those nine are the closest thing in this catalog to a deliberate yearling-to-yearling pinhook. Last year, all three Fasig-Tipton July purchases in the October catalog went through the ring.

The other seven changed hands at Keeneland September, between September 14 and 26. All seven had already been entered in October by their previous owners, and by the time they sold, the October catalog was printed. They appear in it whether or not the new owner ever planned to sell here. Last year's October catalog carried ten horses in the same position. Five were withdrawn, one was bought back and four sold. I would treat these seven as horses to watch until they show up in the ring.

Two of the 16 yearling resales have an earlier purchase behind the most recent one.

Hip 225, the Annapolis filly, was bought for $80,000 at Fasig-Tipton November before bringing $150,000 at Keeneland September.

Hip 181, a Drain the Clock colt, sold for $82,000 at OBS Winter and then brought $125,000 at Fasig-Tipton July before coming here.

I am tracking this group separately from the conventional pinhooks. If the July and New York-bred horses go through the ring, we get a rare look at the same yearling trading twice in one selling season.

A few pinhooks I want to follow

Hip 831, a Gun Runner colt out of Deceptive Vision, has the largest identified conventional pinhook purchase price in the catalog. He was bought for $800,000 at Keeneland January, withdrawn from Fasig-Tipton Saratoga, then went through Keeneland Book 1 and RNA'd at $975,000.

Hip 499, an Up to the Mark colt out of Zee Drop, cost $400,000 at Fasig-Tipton November before RNA'ing at $900,000 in Keeneland Book 1.

Hip 202, an Uncle Mo colt, was a $485,000 Keeneland November purchase before being withdrawn from Keeneland September. Hip 538, a Cody's Wish filly bought for $440,000 at Fasig-Tipton November, then RNA'd at $525,000 at Saratoga. Another Cody's Wish, hip 1381, carries a $425,000 Fasig-Tipton November purchase price.

Then there is hip 279, a Dr. Schivel filly bought for $1,000 at Keeneland January.

Sixteen horses in the catalog have appeared in three prior public catalogs.

The seller's purchase price is on the record

Twenty-six of this year's conventional pinhooks already went through the ring at Keeneland and RNA'd.

Their median public purchase price is $200,000. Their median September RNA amount is $252,500. In 18 of the 26, the September RNA amount was above the original purchase price.

That is a clear record of the seller's position before the horse comes back through the ring. A homebred whose owner is comfortable carrying him into training sits in a different commercial position from a $200,000 pinhook that has already missed one yearling market.

Last year's 249 conventional pinhooks had an 82.6% initial ring clearance and a $50,000 median, against $30,000 for horses with no completed prior public purchase. Among those that sold, the median gross multiple was 1.47 times the public purchase price. Almost 30% sold for less than they had cost.

Reported October proceeds from the pinhooks offered amounted to 1.11 times their recorded purchase prices before expenses. If withdrawals are included in the acquisition pool, reported sale proceeds equal 0.99 times purchase price. Unsold and withdrawn horses remain assets, so those figures are the cash realized at October. The final return depends on what the rest bring later.

Feed, board, insurance, veterinary work, sales prep, commission and financing still have to come out of whatever eventually comes back.

Pinhookers are leaning into young sires

Nearly 29% of the first-crop yearlings in this catalog are conventional weanling or short-yearling pinhooks.

The rate falls to 19.5% for second-crop sires and about 15% from the third crop onward.

At the individual sire level, I used the broader public-purchase count so the 16 yearling resales remain part of the ownership picture.

Into Mischief has 14 yearlings in the catalog and no identified public purchases. Life Is Good has 18 and one. Epicenter has 30 and one, with that one being hip 1614, the $100,000 Keeneland September yearling resale.

Young stallions give traders more room for the market's opinion to change between the weanling and yearling sales. Whatever drove the individual purchases, the ownership mix differs sharply from sire to sire.

The second-crop story continues in October

We just spent a lot of time looking at what happened to the 2023 stallion class at Keeneland once their first runners reached the track. October offers another view of the same group.

There are 334 second-crop yearlings by 30 sires here, up from 183 last year. They account for 20.7% of the catalog.

That pattern goes back years. Since 2021, second-crop yearlings have represented a larger share of Fasig-Tipton October than of Keeneland September every year. First-crop sire representation has tracked the two sales much more closely.

The 2023 class makes the movement easy to see. Twenty-six sires had first-crop yearlings here in 2025 and second-crop yearlings here now. Their Keeneland September catalog fell from 1,462 to 804, down 45%. Their October representation fell from 478 to 328, down 31%.

October's share of that class's combined yearling inventory rose from 24.6% to 29.0%.

Olympiad is a good example. He had 101 Keeneland September yearlings cataloged last year and 47 this year. His October book went the other direction, from 24 to 34.

By sire age, October looks a lot like Keeneland Book 5A

There are 180 sires represented in October, only ten fewer than Keeneland September despite Keeneland having almost three times as many yearlings.

No stallion has more than 34 here. Keeneland had 38 sires with at least 50.

Olympiad leads October with 34. Vekoma and McKinzie have 32 each, Arabian Lion 31, while Gunite, Taiba and Epicenter have 30 apiece.

October itself has also become more concentrated. The number of represented sires has fallen from 225 in 2019 to 180 today, while the top ten have gone from 13.9% of the catalog to 19.0%.

By sire-cycle mix, the closest Keeneland comparison is Book 5A.

The comparison covers sire age alone.

Some sires lean heavily on October. Americanrevolution has 82% of his combined Keeneland-plus-October yearlings here. Mystic Guide has 57%, Flameaway 48%, Tacitus 48%, Loggins 48% and Mo Donegal 44%.

Flightline has 6% of his combined book here. Gun Runner has 11%, Nyquist and Uncle Mo 12%, Yaupon and Not This Time 13%, and Justify 14%.

Buyers paid for proven production

The raw 2025 results look much like you would expect.

A yearling with black type in the first dam had a $50,000 median. Move the closest black type to the second dam and the median fell to $30,000. Third dam was $21,000. Fourth dam was $15,000.

I wanted to know how much of that price difference came from the pedigree feature itself and how much came from the sire.

Stakes-winning mares tend to visit more expensive stallions. Comparing their yearlings against the entire sale can make the mare's own race record look more valuable than it was when buyers were choosing between horses by the same sire.

A yearling out of a mare that had already produced a stakes winner brought about 44% more than another yearling by the same sire after controlling for the other basic factors in the model.

The mare's own stakes record carried little measurable premium once sire and production were taken into account. The first-foal estimate was also too imprecise to call a measurable discount.

There are 264 yearlings in this year's catalog out of mares that have produced a stakes winner. I would know that list.

The sire alone explained 45.1% of price variation

Among the 1,037 sold yearlings in last year's model, sire identity alone accounted for 45.1% of the variation in log price.

Add everything we could reliably pull off the catalog page and the model moved to 46.7%. Add the Keeneland route and it reached 47.8%.

The sire effect carries more than genetic quality. Mare quality, stud fee, breeder quality, fashion and the kinds of individuals that reach a particular sire all travel with the name at the top of the page.

Specific pedigree features still mattered, particularly proven production and first-dam black type. A large amount of price variation remained unexplained by the information available on the page.

Physical, movement, vetting, temperament, scope, individual family context and the opinions of the people standing around the horse never appear in a model built from catalog data.

That is why we go to the barn.

May foals have met or beaten the October median every year

Among the May foals that reached this sale, the median has equaled or exceeded the overall October median every year from 2019 through 2025.

In 2025 it was $45,000 against $30,000 sale-wide. In 2024, $21,000 against $20,000. In 2022, $30,000 against $25,000.

These are the late foals that made it to the October catalog, so the group is already filtered. Still, the history gives me little reason to throw one out because the foaling date says May.

October also gives those horses several more weeks than a September sale, which is worth keeping in mind when judging maturity.

There are 311 May-or-later foals here this year. The extreme case is hip 565, a Gun Runner colt out of Arienza, herself a daughter of Azeri. He was foaled August 19, 2025 and will be roughly 14 months old when he sells.

Keep working the catalog

Fasig-Tipton's updates sheet gets less attention than it should.

Last year, 88 yearlings had a new stakes win or stakes placing appear in their family in the pre-sale updates. Of the 74 that were offered, 67 sold, a 90.5% initial ring clearance. Horses without that kind of update cleared at 78.6%.

Active families are naturally more likely to produce fresh good news, so that comparison is descriptive. It still gives me a reason to refresh the work.

Most of last year's updates were published from October 14 through 16, only days before the first session, so any shortlist built now needs another pass when they arrive.

Your underbidder may be buying for March

Of the 1,103 yearlings in our normalized 2025 results, 439 later appeared in one of the major 2026 two-year-old sale catalogs, 39.8% of the sold population. Of those 439, 362 ultimately went through the ring.

The share was highest between $50,000 and $100,000.

If you are trying to buy a racehorse in that range, you are often bidding against somebody who is thinking about what the horse could be worth after breaking, training and breezing.

The group that returned to the juvenile market had a median October purchase price of $40,000. Among those that subsequently sold at two, the median juvenile price was $60,000 and the median gross multiple was 1.79x. About 48% reached at least twice their yearling price, while 26.5% sold below it.

That resale group is selected twice, first by the decision to send the horse to a juvenile sale and again by whether the horse made it through the process and sold. Those multiples describe that population. They are a poor guide to the expected return on an October yearling.

The 54% that later appeared in a juvenile-sale catalog in the $50,000 to $100,000 band is the number I would keep in my head at the ring.

This market has changed

October has moved substantially over the last seven years.

The share of yearlings selling below $25,000 fell from 63.4% in 2019 to 40.8% last year. The number of $300,000-plus horses rose from 13 to 44.

Those figures use our normalized exports and include identifiable post-sales. Fasig-Tipton's 2025 close-of-sale release reported 1,097 sold for $71,843,500. Later post-sales in the export bring the analytical record to 1,103 sold for $72,071,000.

Catalog size has barely moved over the same period.

Last year's market set a high bar. Gross rose more than 22% in a year, and the median moved from $20,000 to $30,000.

What I want before I see the horse

For every horse that survives the initial screen, I want the same basic information in front of me:

Then I want to see the horse.

About the analysis. This study uses the 2026 Fasig-Tipton October catalog and export, Fasig-Tipton October results from 2019 through 2025, Keeneland September 2026, the principal 2025-26 weanling and short-yearling sales, and the major 2026 two-year-old sales. A conventional pinhook is defined here as a horse whose most recent completed public purchase occurred as a weanling or short yearling. Yearling resales are tracked separately. Retained RNAs are excluded. Public purchase price means the latest completed public transaction we could identify and should not be read as the owner's total economic basis. Historical results in the analysis use normalized sale exports that include identifiable post-sale transactions. The pedigree-page analysis uses the 2025 October catalog as buyers saw it on sale day, including published updates. Within-sire estimates compare sold yearlings while controlling for Keeneland route, sex, May-or-later foaling and New York-bred status. Page-derived fields were parsed programmatically and spot-checked against rendered catalog pages.

Every chart behind this analysis, each with its data table, is on the companion Data page: Inside the Fasig-Tipton October 2026 Catalog.