Inside the Fasig-Tipton October 2026 Catalog
How the 2026 catalog connects to Keeneland September and the year’s earlier sales, and what seven years of October results tell us about this year.
Data as of September 30, 2026 · Kentucky October Yearlings, Lexington, October 19 to 22, 2026
- 1,613yearlings cataloged
- 180sires
- 105consignors
- 4sessions
911 of them have appeared in a sale catalog since last fall.
Hips 666 and 1414 were withdrawn before the catalog was printed.
Download the infographic (PNG)Download the slides (PDF)Download the 92 Keeneland RNAs (CSV)
01 · The Keeneland connection
A third of the book already faced Keeneland
522
of the 1,613 yearlings were cataloged at Keeneland September three weeks earlier.
Their owners withdrew 423 before the ring. Another 92 went through it and were bought back, and 7 sold, three in the ring and four privately afterward. The 423 are 44 percent of every yearling withdrawn at Keeneland this year, and 212 of them came out of Book 5B.
FT October 2026 yearlings by Keeneland September book
Show the data
| Keeneland September book | Withdrawn | RNA | Sold | In FT October |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Book 1 | 26 | 24 | 3 | 53 |
| Book 2 | 67 | 49 | 2 | 118 |
| Book 3 | 47 | 19 | 2 | 68 |
| Book 4 | 30 | 0 | 0 | 30 |
| Book 5A | 41 | 0 | 0 | 41 |
| Book 5B | 212 | 0 | 0 | 212 |
| Never at Keeneland | 1,091 | |||
| Total | 423 | 92 | 7 | 1,613 |
02 · The Keeneland RNAs
The Keeneland bid is public
$185,000
median RNA price of the 92 bought back at Keeneland. Last year’s group: $125,000.
Twenty were bid to $300,000 or more. Last year’s Keeneland RNAs were the most liquid horses in October, clearing at 85.5 percent through the ring against 78.6 percent for yearlings never cataloged at Keeneland. They sold at a median 0.88 times the bid their owners had refused.
Last year’s Keeneland RNAs that sold at FT October: 73
Show the data
| FT October 2025, by Keeneland route | Cataloged | Offered | Sold in ring | Ring clearance | Median |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Never at Keeneland | 1,052 | 884 | 695 | 78.6% | $23,000 |
| Withdrawn at Keeneland | 438 | 365 | 294 | 80.5% | $50,000 |
| RNA at Keeneland | 101 | 83 | 71 | 85.5% | $90,000 |
| Keeneland RNAs sold at FT October 2025 | Value |
|---|---|
| Sold, ring and post-sale | 73 |
| Sold at or above the Keeneland RNA price | 26 |
| Sold below it | 47 |
| Median sale price over RNA price | 0.88 |
| Median RNA price, 2025 group | $125,000 |
| Median RNA price, 2026 group (92) | $185,000 |
| 2026 group bid to $300,000 or more | 20 |
03 · Pinhooks
One in five has a cost basis
311
were bought at auction as weanlings or short yearlings: 19.3% of the catalog.
Their purchases total $24,977,200, against $14,640,000 for last year’s 249. The median purchase was $40,000: $66,000 for weanlings and $25,000 for short yearlings. None of the 14 Into Mischiefs has been bought at auction before.
Share of each sire crop that are pinhooks
Show the data
| Sire crop | Pinhooks | Cataloged | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| First crop | 113 | 391 | 28.9% |
| Second crop | 65 | 334 | 19.5% |
| Third crop | 15 | 100 | 15.0% |
| Fourth crop or later | 118 | 783 | 15.1% |
| All (5 with crop unknown) | 311 | 1,613 | 19.3% |
04 · Sire age
October is where the second crops go
20.7%
of the catalog is by second-crop sires: 334 yearlings by 30 stallions.
Second-crop sires have taken a larger share of October than of Keeneland in every year since 2021. Last October their yearlings sold for a $20,000 median, the lowest of any crop group.
Second-crop sires’ share of the catalog
FT October 2025 median by sire crop
Show the data
| Year | FT October | Keeneland September |
|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 16.0% | 12.6% |
| 2022 | 18.4% | 16.7% |
| 2023 | 14.4% | 9.2% |
| 2024 | 20.5% | 15.5% |
| 2025 | 11.5% | 9.8% |
| 2026 | 20.7% | 17.6% |
| Sire crop, FT October 2025 | Median sold price |
|---|---|
| First crop | $35,000 |
| Second crop | $20,000 |
| Third crop | $21,000 |
| Fourth crop or later | $37,000 |
05 · The catalog page
Production beats résumé
+44%
for a yearling out of a mare who has produced a stakes winner, against a yearling by the same sire.
A mare’s own stakes win added 3 percent, with a range from minus 16 to plus 26 percent, which is no measurable premium. The sire alone explained 45.1 percent of the variation in price. Everything on the catalog page added 1.6 points. This year’s book has 264 yearlings out of mares who have produced a stakes winner.
Price against a yearling by the same sire, FT October 2025
Share of 2025 price variation explained
Show the data
| Page feature, same-sire comparison | Estimate | 95% range |
|---|---|---|
| Dam has produced a stakes winner | +44% | +17% to +78% |
| Dam won a stakes herself | +3% | −16% to +26% |
| Share of price variation | Percent |
|---|---|
| Sire | 45.1 |
| Catalog page, added | 1.6 |
| Keeneland route, added | 1.1 |
| The individual horse (unexplained) | 52.2 |
06 · Where they go next
The underbidder is pricing a breeze
39.8%
of last year’s October yearlings were cataloged at a 2026 two-year-old sale: 439 of 1,103.
Of 362 offered as juveniles, 313 sold. Their median yearling price was $40,000 and their median juvenile price $60,000, a median gross multiple of 1.79, before a year of board, breaking and training.
Share cataloged at a 2026 juvenile sale, by FT October 2025 price
Show the data
| FT October 2025 price | Sold | Share at a juvenile sale |
|---|---|---|
| Under $10,000 | 202 | 21.3% |
| $10,000 to $24,999 | 248 | 37.5% |
| $25,000 to $49,999 | 235 | 45.1% |
| $50,000 to $99,999 | 202 | 54.5% |
| $100,000 to $199,999 | 126 | 49.2% |
| $200,000 and up | 90 | 27.8% |
| All | 1,103 | 39.8% |
07 · The sessions
No books. No easy days.
7 of 7
years in which the final session cleared a larger share of its offered horses than the first.
The catalog runs alphabetically by dam, so session medians barely move: $30,000, $32,000, $30,000 and $35,000 last year. In six of the seven years, the first session had the week’s lowest clearance.
Ring clearance, first and final session
Show the data
| Year | First session | Final session |
|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 64.1% | 77.1% |
| 2020 | 73.0% | 74.4% |
| 2021 | 77.1% | 85.8% |
| 2022 | 72.5% | 86.9% |
| 2023 | 73.6% | 79.2% |
| 2024 | 75.3% | 84.2% |
| 2025 | 75.4% | 83.8% |
08 · Seven years
The October median has more than doubled
$30,000
median in 2025, up from $13,000 in 2019.
Gross grew from $38,258,900 to $72,071,000 over the same seven years.
FT October median sold price
Show the data
| Year | Median | Gross |
|---|---|---|
| 2019 | $13,000 | $38,258,900 |
| 2020 | $15,000 | $32,743,700 |
| 2021 | $22,000 | $52,607,500 |
| 2022 | $25,000 | $55,426,500 |
| 2023 | $24,000 | $51,120,000 |
| 2024 | $20,000 | $58,940,500 |
| 2025 | $30,000 | $72,071,000 |
09 · From the catalog pages
The edges of the book
The range of pinhook purchase prices. Hip 279, a Dr. Schivel filly, cost $1,000 at Keeneland January. Hip 831, a Gun Runner colt out of Deceptive Vision, cost $800,000 there and was bought back at $975,000 in Keeneland’s Book 1.
Hip 565, a Gun Runner colt out of Arienza, a daughter of Azeri, was foaled August 19, 2025. No other yearling in the book was foaled after June 15.
dams in the catalog won a Grade 1 or Group 1 race.
Method
This is a pre-sale snapshot taken on September 30, 2026. The population is the 1,613 yearlings in the Fasig-Tipton Kentucky October Yearlings 2026 export and catalog; hips 666 and 1414 were withdrawn before the catalog was printed. We will follow every pinhook through the ring on the Fasig-Tipton October pinhook tracker. The written analysis is How to Read Fasig-Tipton October.
Every yearling was matched against the public results of ten sales since October 2025: Keeneland November 2025, Fasig-Tipton November 2025 and Saratoga Fall Mixed 2025 (weanlings); Keeneland January 2026, Fasig-Tipton Kentucky Winter Mixed 2026 and OBS Winter Mixed 2026 (short yearlings); Fasig-Tipton July, Saratoga and New York-Bred 2026 and Keeneland September 2026 (yearlings). Horses are matched on sire, dam and foal year, with no date-of-birth conflicts across 1,165 matched records.
A pinhook is a horse with a completed public purchase as a weanling or short yearling, sold in the ring or reported as a post-sale. The RNA price is the final bid at which a horse was bought back. Offered is sold plus RNA plus post-sale, and ring clearance is horses sold in the ring divided by horses offered. Keeneland books are Keeneland’s own designations: Books 1 to 4, 5A and 5B.
Comparisons with earlier years use Fasig-Tipton’s October results for 2019 to 2025, which include post-sale transactions reported after the close; the 2025 export (1,103 sold, $72,071,000) runs slightly above the closing-day release (1,097, $71,843,500). Page fields for 2025 come from the Fasig-Tipton web catalog, which prints the pre-sale updates, and its updates sheet. Same-sire comparisons are regressions of log price with sire fixed effects on 1,037 sold yearlings by 111 sires with three or more sold, controlling for Keeneland route, sex, May foaling and New York-bred status, with standard errors clustered by sire.
Two-year-old sales are OBS March, Spring and June and Fasig-Tipton Midlantic May 2026. Sire crops come from the catalog page; the second-crop trend derives each sire’s crop from its first cataloged yearling year across 2019 to 2026 yearling sales, which agrees with the page on 99.3 percent of 2026 hips. Multiples are gross, before any expense.