One Market, Two Rooms

Japanese buyers spent $25.3 million at Fasig-Tipton’s November Sale on Monday. At Keeneland’s opening session on Tuesday, they spent $5.2 million. Across the two nights, 83.1% of their spending went to Fasig-Tipton.

I’ve long thought of these back-to-back sales as one market operating in two rooms. This year, 33 buyers purchased horses at both sales, accounting for 49.0% of Fasig-Tipton’s gross and 46.5% of Keeneland Book 1’s. Together, the sessions sold 300 horses for $199.6 million, excluding lifetime breeding rights.

The shared buying bench helps explain how these sales operate together, while differences in the catalogs help explain where buyers spent their money. Fasig-Tipton commanded higher prices for mares even within comparable covering-fee ranges. Weanling prices told a different story, with the apparent Keeneland premium largely disappearing when we compared stallions represented at both sales.

And at the very top of the weanling market, six horses brought $1 million or more, compared with eight across the previous nine years combined.

Japanese Buyers Concentrated Their Spending at Fasig-Tipton

Of the 33 fillies and mares that sold for $1 million or more at Fasig-Tipton, Japanese buyers purchased 12. Keeneland Book 1 produced 19 seven-figure fillies and mares, with just one purchased by a Japanese buyer.

Katsumi Yoshida spent $10.9 million on six horses Monday, including Kathynmarissa, fresh off her Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf victory, for $3.2 million, and In Our Time, a daughter of Not This Time, for $2.5 million.

At Keeneland, Yoshida purchased one mare, Wild Bout Hilary, in foal to Constitution, for $600,000. Shadai Farm bought Usha, a racing or broodmare prospect by Tiz the Law, for $1.5 million.

The composition of the catalogs helps explain the difference. Eleven of the 17 fillies and mares purchased by Japanese buyers at Fasig-Tipton were racing or broodmare prospects. That category generated $54.9 million, representing 54.0% of the sale’s gross, with a $925,000 median. Keeneland’s horses of racing age generated $29.3 million at a $555,000 median.

This buying pattern has persisted for several years. Japanese buyers’ share of Fasig-Tipton’s fillies-and-mares gross has remained between 28.0% and 32.2% every November since 2023. At Keeneland Book 1, their share was 22.3% in 2022, fell below 10% in 2023 and reached just 5.5% this year.

Fasig-Tipton cataloged a relatively small group of high-value racing and broodmare prospects, including horses whose recent performances had established their racing credentials. Japanese buyers have consistently committed substantial money to that part of the market, and this year’s results continued the trend.

Figure 1 · Japanese buying across two sales

Since 2023, Japanese buyers have taken 28.0% to 32.2% of Fasig-Tipton’s fillies-and-mares gross every year, and under 10% of Book 1’s

Show the data

Year	Fasig-Tipton November	Keeneland Book 1
2021	33.4%	17.8%
2022	17.6%	22.3%
2023	28.5%	9.7%
2024	32.2%	9.8%
2025	28.0%	4.0%
2026	28.0%	5.5%

2026: Japanese buyers bought 17 of Fasig-Tipton’s 79 fillies and mares sold, for $24,475,000, and 8 of Book 1’s 93, for $4,055,000.

The Mare Premium Extended Beyond Japanese Purchases

Fasig-Tipton’s mares in foal sold for an $887,500 median, up from $650,000 last year. Keeneland Book 1’s broodmares brought a $425,000 median, down from $475,000.

Japanese buying contributed to Fasig-Tipton’s results, particularly at the upper end. Yet the price gap remained substantial among mares purchased by other buyers.

Excluding Japanese purchases, Fasig-Tipton’s 28 mares in foal sold for a $775,000 median. Keeneland’s remaining 54 broodmares brought $462,500. Japanese participation could still have influenced the bidding, but the higher Fasig-Tipton median extended well beyond the horses Japanese buyers ultimately purchased.

The catalogs also differed in covering sire quality, at least as measured by advertised fees. Fasig-Tipton’s mares carried a median $175,000 cover, compared with $125,000 at Keeneland. We grouped the mares by covering fee to examine prices within similar commercial ranges.

Among mares carrying covers of $200,000 or more, Fasig-Tipton sold 18 at a $987,500 median, with 90% clearing the ring. Keeneland sold 22 at a $775,000 median, with 81.5% clearing.

The difference was greater in the $100,000 to $199,999 cover-fee range. Fasig-Tipton sold 10 mares at a $737,500 median, compared with 14 at $287,500 in Book 1.

Figure 2 · Comparing mares by covering fee

At the same covering fee, Fasig-Tipton’s mares sold for more in both bands with five or more sold at each sale

Show the data

Cover fee	Sale	Cataloged	Offered	Sold	Ring clearance	Median	Median multiple
$200,000 or more	Fasig-Tipton November	22	20	18	90.0%	$987,500	4.50×
$200,000 or more	Keeneland Book 1	39	27	22	81.5%	$775,000	3.30×
$100,000 to $199,999	Fasig-Tipton November	13	12	10	75.0%	$737,500	5.20×
$100,000 to $199,999	Keeneland Book 1	23	18	14	72.2%	$287,500	2.55×
$50,000 to $99,999	Fasig-Tipton November	7	6	4	66.7%	$437,500	6.17×
$50,000 to $99,999	Keeneland Book 1	27	22	17	72.7%	$325,000	4.67×
Under $50,000	Fasig-Tipton November	4	3	2	66.7%	$250,000	6.19×
Under $50,000	Keeneland Book 1	9	7	4	57.1%	$115,000	3.42×

A covering fee provides a useful commercial benchmark, although mares carrying the same stallion can differ enormously in racing record, pedigree, age and produce history.

Fasig-Tipton cataloged just 46 mares in foal, the smallest group in the ten Novembers we’ve examined. Twenty-five were stakes winners, and 19 were carrying their first foal. Keeneland cataloged 100 broodmares, offering buyers a larger and more varied selection.

The price comparisons establish a consistent advantage for Fasig-Tipton within the two well-populated covering-fee bands. I read it as a catalog effect: fewer mares, a majority of them stakes winners, and buyers competing for a smaller supply.

Gun Runner, Flightline and the Value of the Mare

Gun Runner’s in-foal mares produced identical medians in both rooms.

Every mare offered in foal to him sold, five at Fasig-Tipton and seven at Keeneland, with both groups bringing a $1.2 million median.

The highest prices came at Keeneland, where Ahavah brought $4.8 million from Hill ’n’ Dale at Xalapa and Whisper Hill Farm paid $2.9 million for Flag Day. Fasig-Tipton’s highest-priced Gun Runner cover was Bottle of Rouge, purchased by Yosuke Imafuku for $2.2 million.

Despite those differences at the top, the middle of both groups landed at $1.2 million, representing 4.8 times Gun Runner’s $250,000 advertised 2026 fee.

Two other covering sires had at least five mares sold in each room, and both brought more at Fasig-Tipton.

Into Mischief’s five covers at Fasig-Tipton brought a $1.6 million median, compared with $900,000 for seven at Keeneland. Both groups carried covers booked during a $250,000 fee season.

Flightline produced the widest difference. Five mares carrying his $125,000 cover sold at Fasig-Tipton for a $960,000 median, compared with $175,000 for five at Keeneland. That’s a 5.5-fold difference among mares carrying pregnancies by the same stallion.

Fasig-Tipton’s group included Feeling Mischief at $1.5 million, Luckiest at $1 million and Macanga at $960,000. Macanga had failed to sell in the ring at a $975,000 final bid before being purchased privately by Saint George for $960,000. The same group included Cozee Rags at $200,000, a $1.3 million spread within one stallion’s book.

The Flightline results reinforce the limits of using a covering sire’s fee as a proxy for broodmare value. The mares themselves remain central to the equation, and the small samples make it difficult to separate differences in their individual quality from the effects of the sale venue.

Weanlings Followed a Different Pattern

Keeneland Book 1’s weanlings sold for a $300,000 median, nearly twice Fasig-Tipton’s $160,000. The stallion composition offers an important explanation for that difference.

Keeneland’s weanling catalog carried a $75,000 median conception fee, compared with $30,000 at Fasig-Tipton. Book 1 contained a greater concentration of progeny by expensive, established sires.

We compared the 16 stallions with at least one weanling sold in both rooms. Book 1 produced the higher median for eight, Fasig-Tipton for seven, and National Treasure finished level at $255,000.

The median Book 1-to-Fasig price ratio across those 16 sire groups was 1.03. Individual sires ranged from 0.46 to 2.67, however, and many of the groups contained only one to three sales.

Into Mischief provides an example. Three of his weanlings sold at Fasig-Tipton for an $800,000 median, compared with five at Keeneland for $475,000. Not This Time and Vekoma also produced higher medians at Fasig-Tipton, while Gun Runner and Arabian Knight favored Keeneland.

A second comparison grouped weanlings by conception fee. Among those conceived at advertised fees of $25,000 to $49,999, Fasig-Tipton sold 31 for a median of 5.33 times the fee. Keeneland sold 20 for 5.62 times.

Most of the gap between the overall weanling medians comes from the composition of the two catalogs. Within shared sire groups, neither room held a consistent price advantage. What these comparisons cannot control for is the individual foal: its pedigree, physical and development.

For sellers, the practical implication is that catalog placement deserves as much attention as the sale company’s headline statistics. The relevant considerations include the horse’s pedigree and physical, the competing offerings in its category, and the buyers likely to participate. Fasig-Tipton’s higher mare medians and Keeneland’s higher weanling median describe the horses each sold; they cannot establish what an individual horse would have brought in the other ring.

Figure 3 · The same sires, two markets

Book 1 paid more for eight of the 16 sires, Fasig-Tipton for seven, and National Treasure finished level

Show the data

Sire	2025 fee	Sold at FT	FT median	Sold in Book 1	Book 1 median	Book 1 over FT
Cody’s Wish	$65,000	6	$75,000	1	$200,000	2.67
Liam’s Map	$40,000	1	$100,000	1	$250,000	2.50
Yaupon	$25,000	2	$227,500	2	$367,500	1.62
Arabian Knight	$30,000	1	$160,000	3	$250,000	1.56
Gun Runner	$250,000	1	$400,000	3	$600,000	1.50
Constitution	$110,000	1	$220,000	2	$275,000	1.25
Curlin	$225,000	1	$435,000	2	$512,500	1.18
Dornoch	$40,000	1	$75,000	1	$80,000	1.07
National Treasure	$40,000	3	$255,000	2	$255,000	1.00
Quality Road	$150,000	1	$170,000	2	$156,000	0.92
Violence		1	$110,000	1	$100,000	0.91
Practical Joke	$75,000	3	$350,000	5	$300,000	0.86
Into Mischief	$250,000	3	$800,000	5	$475,000	0.59
Not This Time	$175,000	2	$1,000,000	3	$550,000	0.55
Tiz the Law	$30,000	3	$190,000	3	$100,000	0.53
Vekoma	$35,000	2	$325,000	3	$150,000	0.46

The Year of the Million-Dollar Weanling

Six weanlings sold for $1 million or more across the two sessions, the highest number in our ten-year comparison. In the previous nine years, from 2017 through 2025, the two sales combined had produced just eight. The previous annual high was three in 2017, and five of those nine years produced none.

Four of this year’s six sold at Keeneland Book 1, where the $300,000 weanling median was the highest in our historical series.

Figure 4 · The million-dollar weanling

Six weanlings reached $1 million in 2026, twice the previous high of three in 2017

Show the data

Year	Fasig-Tipton November	Keeneland Book 1	Combined
2017	2	1	3
2018	1	0	1
2019	0	0	0
2020	0	0	0
2021	0	0	0
2022	1	1	2
2023	0	0	0
2024	0	0	0
2025	0	2	2
2026	2	4	6

Year	Sale	Hip	Sire	Sex	Price
2026	Keeneland Book 1	105	Justify	Colt	$1,300,000
2026	Fasig-Tipton November	80	Not This Time	Filly	$1,150,000
2026	Keeneland Book 1	19	Good Magic	Filly	$1,050,000
2026	Fasig-Tipton November	36	Into Mischief	Filly	$1,000,000
2026	Keeneland Book 1	119	American Pharoah	Filly	$1,000,000
2026	Keeneland Book 1	265	Gun Runner	Colt	$1,000,000
2025	Keeneland Book 1	146	Gun Runner	Colt	$2,200,000
2025	Keeneland Book 1	82	Curlin	Filly	$1,250,000
2022	Keeneland Book 1	161	Medaglia d'Oro	Filly	$1,500,000
2022	Fasig-Tipton November	128	Uncle Mo	Filly	$1,350,000
2018	Fasig-Tipton November	233	Pioneerof the Nile	Filly	$1,900,000
2017	Fasig-Tipton November	21	Street Sense	Filly	$1,000,000
2017	Fasig-Tipton November	46	American Pharoah	Filly	$1,000,000
2017	Keeneland Book 1	365	Curlin	Colt	$1,000,000

The top-priced weanling was a Justify colt purchased by M.V. Magnier and White Birch Farm for $1.3 million. A full brother to Group 1 winner Ruling Court, he brought a Classic-winning family to a weanling sale.

At Fasig-Tipton, Caitlin Dunne, acting for Asagi Stables, purchased both seven-figure weanlings: a Not This Time filly out of Feeling Mischief for $1.15 million and an Into Mischief filly out of Solo Album for $1 million.

Three of the six million-dollar weanlings were conceived when their sires stood for $250,000: Into Mischief, Justify and Gun Runner. The others included daughters of Not This Time, Good Magic and American Pharoah.

The American Pharoah filly, purchased by Glen Hill Farm for $1 million, was conceived at a $45,000 fee, making her sale price 22.2 times the advertised cost of the cover. Her second dam is Leslie’s Lady, whose offspring include Into Mischief, Beholder and Mendelssohn.

Craig Bernick told Thoroughbred Daily News, “that’s a pedigree that we’ve never been able to access.” He explained that Glen Hill intends to race the filly before eventually adding her to its broodmare band.

Four of this year’s six million-dollar weanlings were fillies. Across the ten-year study, 10 of the 14 seven-figure weanlings were female. Their future breeding value can be an important part of the economics, particularly for buyers seeking access to families that seldom produce available fillies.

The record number of seven-figure transactions also contrasted with the broader weanling results. Fasig-Tipton’s median declined from $180,000 last November to $160,000 this year, while Keeneland Book 1 reached $300,000. At the top, buyers paid prices ordinarily associated with selected yearlings, including $1 million for a filly conceived at a $45,000 fee, whose female family provides a potential long-term breeding asset.

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Corrections. Every figure in this piece was checked against its source, and an error is still possible. If you find one, let me know through our contact form or @TB_Intel on X, and I’ll correct it quickly.