How November Buyers Are Sorting the Young Sires

Through Fasig-Tipton November and Keeneland November Book 3, as of November 8, 2026.

Domestic Product’s first weanlings have found buyers more consistently than those of any other sire in his class with at least 10 offered. Muth and National Treasure have commanded the highest medians in that group, while Arabian Knight has led on volume and top price. Through Fasig-Tipton November and Keeneland’s opening three books, the first foals have given breeders several different reasons for encouragement.

The reception changes for stallions returning with later crops. Those selling their second weanlings have lost ground since last November. Among sires with their first 2-year-olds, spending is concentrated in a few names, and a high position on the earnings list has not assured higher weanling prices.

The 2027 stud fees, announced in October, give breeders another number to weigh against these results. Several stallions whose first foals sold well will stand next spring for less.

The First Foals Are Finding Buyers

Domestic Product sold 29 of the 35 weanlings he had offered across Fasig-Tipton and Keeneland through Book 3, an initial ring clearance of 82.9%, at a $120,000 median. That was the highest clearance among the 12 sires in the class with 10 or more offered. The rest of the class cleared 68.0% in the ring.

Arabian Knight combined the class’s largest volume with its top price. His 33 sold weanlings brought $5,090,000 at a $140,000 median, led by a $600,000 colt out of Katie’s Kiss and a $485,000 filly out of Knarsdale.

Muth and National Treasure sold at the highest medians among the sires with 10 or more offered. Muth’s 13 sold weanlings brought a $200,000 median, including a $525,000 filly out of Precious Dixie. National Treasure’s 22 sold brought a $192,500 median. His top price, a $400,000 colt at Fasig-Tipton, was bought by Spendthrift Farm, where he stands.

The four started from different fees and different mare books. National Treasure entered stud at $40,000, Muth at $35,000, and Arabian Knight and Domestic Product at $30,000. Their medians range from four to nearly six times those advertised fees, before accounting for the other costs of producing and selling a foal. Differences in the mares they covered also matter when comparing those results.

These medians run through Book 3 only. National Treasure has one weanling cataloged in Keeneland’s Books 4 and 5, against five for Muth, six for Arabian Knight and seven for Domestic Product. Those later books generally contain lower-priced stock and could bring the medians down.

Figure 1 · The first crop by sire

Muth and National Treasure sold at the highest medians; Domestic Product sold the largest share of his weanlings in the ring

Show the data

Sire	Offered	Sold in ring	Ring clearance	Sold	Gross	Median	2025 fee	2026 fee	2027 fee
Muth	17	12	70.6%	13	$2,780,000	$200,000	$35,000	$30,000	$25,000
National Treasure	26	19	73.1%	22	$3,958,000	$192,500	$40,000	$35,000	$30,000
Arabian Knight	42	31	73.8%	33	$5,090,000	$140,000	$30,000	$30,000	$30,000
Domestic Product	35	29	82.9%	29	$3,970,000	$120,000	$30,000	$25,000	$20,000
Prince of Monaco	30	20	66.7%	20	$2,281,000	$110,000	$30,000	$30,000	$15,000
Dornoch	12	8	66.7%	8	$830,000	$97,500	$40,000	$30,000	$20,000
Cogburn	22	13	59.1%	13	$1,240,000	$95,000	$30,000	$25,000	$20,000
Gun Pilot	11	7	63.6%	7	$800,000	$90,000	$17,500	$12,500	$12,500
Charge It	13	8	61.5%	8	$817,000	$82,500	$12,500	$12,500	$10,000
Newgate	18	7	38.9%	8	$935,000	$75,000	$20,000	$17,500	$10,000
Kingsbarns	22	17	77.3%	18	$1,755,000	$70,000	$20,000	$17,500	$17,500
Seize the Grey	23	17	73.9%	17	$1,317,000	$70,000	$30,000	$25,000	$20,000

Offered counts horses sold in the ring, RNAs and post-sales; withdrawn horses are left out. Sold in the ring excludes post-sales, which count as offered. The 2025 fee is the fee at which these weanlings were conceived, from TI’s Kentucky stud fee data, data cut November 7, 2026.

The whole class: 402 weanlings cataloged, 291 offered, 203 sold in the ring (69.8%), 213 sold including post-sales, $26,588,000 gross, $100,000 median. Smaller groups: Tapit Trice 4 sold, Blazing Sevens 4, Casa Creed 3, Senor Buscador 3, Bright Future 2, More Than Looks 1; Heartland 0 of 2 offered and Timberlake 0 of 1.

Further down the catalog, the first crop held its ground. In Keeneland Book 3, first-crop weanlings sold at an $80,000 median, level with established sires.

A pinhooker buying these foals will sell them as yearlings before their sires have runners, so the resale depends on each foal’s development, its placement and how buyers take to the first yearlings. At Fasig-Tipton October this year, pinhooks by first-crop sires sold at a median 0.87 times their purchase price, and 37 of the 66 that sold brought less than they cost.

The Second Crop Sells at a Discount

The stallions returning with their second weanlings have already passed through that first yearling market. Across the same November sale window, their median fell from $125,000 on their first foals last year to $75,000 this year, a 40% drop. The median for the whole window fell 13.5%, from $130,000 to $112,500.

These are different horses, and changes in mare quality and sale placement affect the comparison. The pattern holds across years, though. In each comparable November window from 2020 through 2026, second-crop weanlings sold below the window median, the only one of the three young crops never to reach it. They sold below the first crop in six of those seven years.

Figure 2 · The second-crop discount

The second crop was the only one of the three to sell below the window median in every November from 2020 to 2026

Show the data

Year	Window median	1st crop, % of window	2nd crop cataloged	2nd crop sold	2nd crop median	2nd crop, % of window	3rd crop, % of window
2020	$67,000	97.0%	114	53	$60,000	89.5%	85.8%
2021	$85,000	84.7%	134	68	$80,000	94.1%	77.6%
2022	$95,000	79.0%	118	48	$73,500	77.4%	102.6%
2023	$85,000	111.8%	152	74	$55,000	64.7%	58.8%
2024	$90,000	101.1%	89	53	$75,000	83.3%	66.7%
2025	$130,000	96.2%	166	105	$90,000	69.2%	111.5%
2026	$112,500	88.9%	93	46	$77,500	68.9%	111.1%

A sire’s crop is counted from the first year his weanlings appear at either sale since 2017. The rule matches TI’s Kentucky stallion roster for all but two of the 85 roster stallions that entered stud from 2017 and had weanlings at these sales; a cross-check of 2020 to 2025 against earlier foals at Keeneland September and January left every second-crop median unchanged. On TI’s roster the 2024 class’s 2026 median is $75,000, the figure in the text; under this rule it is $77,500. Keeneland Sessions 1 to 5 were Books 1 to 3 in 2025 and 2026.

Cataloged in the window by each class’s first and second crops: 2019 entrants 321 then 134 (−58.3%); 2020, 240 then 118 (−50.8%); 2021, 357 then 152 (−57.4%); 2022, 228 then 89 (−61.0%); 2023, 453 then 166 (−63.4%); 2024, 298 then 93 (−68.8%).

Their numbers shrink as well. For six successive stallion classes, the weanlings cataloged in this window fell by roughly half or more between the first and second crops, by between 50.8% and 68.8%. Smaller foal crops, retention decisions and placement elsewhere can contribute. In Keeneland Book 3 this year, the class sold at a $40,000 median, and 12 of its 16 sales were under $50,000.

The breeder’s timing explains the exposure. A second-season mating is usually made before the stallion’s first foals have established a public auction record. By the time the resulting weanling sells, buyers have seen those first foals become yearlings and watched their commercial reception.

That leaves the breeder open to a large revision in expectations between mating and sale. The stallion’s racing record is unchanged, but buyers now have opinions about what he gets and what other buyers will pay for it. His first runners are still ahead.

For someone buying a second-crop weanling, those runners become part of the resale calculation. The horse will return as a yearling after the sire’s first 2-year-olds have begun racing. A lower purchase price leaves room for that uncertainty and offers little protection if demand keeps weakening.

Buyers Concentrate on a Few Sires

This year’s third-crop weanlings, by stallions with their first 2-year-olds, sold at a $127,500 median across the combined window, above both younger classes. They also cleared the ring at the lowest rate of the three classes: 52 of 79 offered sold in the ring, 65.8%.

Four sires accounted for 93.2% of the class’s gross: Life Is Good, Golden Pal, Jackie’s Warrior and Flightline. Life Is Good alone supplied 44.5%, and his median rose from $250,000 to $340,000, on 11 sold in each year. Without him, the class sold at a $100,000 median, and the 11 weanlings by sires outside the top four sold at $25,000.

Last year’s third-crop class leaned on Yaupon the same way. He accounted for 44 of its 63 weanlings sold and 83.3% of its gross, and the rest sold at a $50,000 median.

A high earnings rank has not guaranteed an increase in weanling prices. Golden Pal leads this year’s first-crop sires by progeny earnings, with 32 winners from 83 runners and nine black-type horses, and his weanling median slipped 3.8%, to $125,000. Jackie’s Warrior ranks second, and his weanling median fell 24.5%, to $100,000, after his yearling median fell 52.9% at Keeneland September.

Across eight sires, changes in weanling medians showed a stronger measured association with changes in Keeneland September yearling medians than with the racing measures examined. Several weanling medians rest on only two or three sales, so the comparison cannot establish which information buyers valued most. September buyers already had spring and summer racing to assess, and particular performances may influence demand in ways that broad racing rates miss.

Figure 3 · The third crop by sire

Across eight sires in the 2023 class, weanling price changes lined up with September yearling price changes

Show the data

Sire	2025 weanlings: sold / median	2026 weanlings: sold / median	Weanling change	Sept yearling change	First-crop rank	Runners / winners	Black-type winners / horses (% of runners)	Graded / G1 winners	Earnings per runner	2025 fee	2027 fee
Life Is Good	11 / $250,000	11 / $340,000	+36.0%	+15.4%	3	61 / 14	2 / 8 (13.1%)	1 / 1	$31,247	$75,000	$125,000
Early Voting	2 / $185,000	2 / $242,500	+31.1%	+25.0%	4	46 / 15	2 / 3 (6.5%)	1 / 1	$37,901	$12,500	$50,000, announced October 15; died October 20
Golden Pal	10 / $130,000	15 / $125,000	-3.8%	+21.2%	1	83 / 32	3 / 9 (10.8%)	1 / 0	$38,693	$20,000	$35,000
Flightline	5 / $250,000	5 / $245,000	-2.0%	-15.0%	5	41 / 15	2 / 2 (4.9%)	1 / 0	$41,790	$150,000	$125,000
Jackie’s Warrior	22 / $132,500	13 / $100,000	-24.5%	-52.9%	2	60 / 22	2 / 5 (8.3%)	1 / 0	$37,039	$25,000	$35,000
Cyberknife	4 / $55,000	2 / $46,350	-15.7%	-59.2%	11	64 / 15	0 / 3 (4.7%)	0 / 0	$17,361	$15,000	$15,000
Corniche	9 / $80,000	2 / $31,000	-61.3%	-11.8%	8	46 / 16	3 / 6 (13.0%)	1 / 0	$28,591	$15,000	$20,000
Epicenter	3 / $200,000	3 / $5,000	-97.5%	-60.0%	7	79 / 13	1 / 4 (5.1%)	0 / 0	$18,372	$35,000	$17,500

Yearling changes compare each sire’s second yearlings at Keeneland September 2026 with his first in 2025, from TI’s September 30 study. Racing statistics are current through November 7, 2026; first-crop rank is by progeny earnings. Taylor Made announced Early Voting’s 2027 fee of $50,000 on October 15, 2026; he died on October 20.

Rank-order correlation with the weanling median change across these eight sires: September yearling median change +0.69 (p = 0.06); black-type horses per runner +0.19; black-type winners per runner +0.12; earnings per runner +0.52 (p = 0.18); graded stakes winners +0.50 (p = 0.20).

Sale placement changes the picture within the class as well. Its median was $300,000 in Keeneland Book 1 and $50,000 in Book 3. A breeder selling at that level faces a different market from the one the class headline suggests.

Where the 2027 Fees Leave Breeders

In the announced 2027 stud fees, 17 of the first-weanling sires tracked had reductions from 2026, five held, and none increased.

The farms behind the four leading first-crop sires set their 2027 fees in October, before any of these weanlings sold. Domestic Product will stand for $20,000, Muth for $25,000 and National Treasure for $30,000. Arabian Knight holds at his introductory $30,000. Three of the four sires whose first foals sold best this fall will cost $10,000 less to breed to than the fee at which these weanlings were conceived.

The farms priced the older classes differently. Of the 16 second-crop stallions with fees for both years, none was raised for 2027; 11 held and five were cut. Of the 19 third-crop stallions, seven were raised, eight held and four were cut. Life Is Good goes from $60,000 to $125,000, and Golden Pal and Jackie’s Warrior each rise from $25,000 to $35,000, all three announced in October.

These weanlings were conceived on 2025 terms. A mare covered at next spring’s fee produces a foal for the 2028 weanling market, when these stallions will have their first 2-year-olds. A breeder retaining that foal for a yearling sale will sell after the first crop has reached three.

That puts a foal conceived next spring in the position the 2023 class occupied this fall, where buyers gave nearly all of the class’s spending to four sires. I think the fee is worth paying on a sire you believe will be one of the few.

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Corrections. Every figure in this piece was checked against its source, and an error is still possible. If you find one, let me know through our contact form or @TB_Intel on X, and I’ll correct it quickly.